Blog of theeconomicfractalisthttp://weblog.ecommunics.org/theeconomicfractalist/Sun, 05 Oct 2008 19:06:42 +0100info@ecommunics.orgSat, 04 Oct 2008 22:16:28 +0100http://weblog.ecommunics.org/theeconomicfractalist/archive-2008.html#317As the Wilshire approaches day 22 of the second fractal of a proposed 9/22/22 day decay sequence, a lessor likely alternative fractal decay pattern has become evident which has a matching reciprocal growth of decay fractal exactly similar to the twin two decay and matching growth of decay fractals seen at the conclusion of a 54 week second fractal ending in August 2004. This fractal progression for both decay and matching growth of decay fractals is 17/42-43/42-43 days. The decay fractal is on day 6 of the second 42-43 day decay fractal and the growth of decay fractal is on day 11 of its second fractal progression. This pattern desires some consideration in terms of a 136 week base decay sequence beginning in August 2000, the area of the averaged saturation real high for the Wilshire. This larger 136 week decay fractal sequence is composed of three fractal sequences: 59 weeks, 45 weeks(a perfect x/2.5x/2x/1.5x Lammert sequence) and 34 weeks. The end of this primary decay fractal sequence now rests between 2x and 2.5x and is analogous to the 1929 base decay fractal sequence and the 1937 low that was likewise between 2x and 2.5x of the 1929-1932 base length. The major economic qualitative difference between the two second fractal decay sequences of 1937 and 2008-2009 is the relative debt load of citizens, corporations and government. The borrowing US government propelled growth between 1932 and 1937 and the borrowing US citizen facilitated by the Federal Reserve monetary policy and the financial lending industry propelled growth between 2002 and 2008. In real terms equity values were substantially lower at the peak of the second fractal saturation growth areas than at the begining of the base fractals in 1929 and 2000. At the end of a possible 17/42-43/42-43 day decay sequence, the low of the Wilshire will rest substantially below its 2002 low. Sun, 28 Sep 2008 14:30:38 +0100http://weblog.ecommunics.org/theeconomicfractalist/archive-2008.html#316The 150 Year Phase Transition Second Fractal Decay Sequence: 9/22/22 days with 2 Days Shared................................................. Over the last year the world's sovereign treasuries and world central banks have injected historically GNP-percentage-wise unprecedented liquidity into the world's financial system to provide daily and weekly cash flow for the composite financial industry and prevent systemic lock-up and collapse of the credit system. With the direct intervention into the 50 year rules of the market by the UK and US securities exchanges, a slight distortion of the the composite equities' absolute daily values have occurred over the last two days with the Wilshire gaining about 300 billion dollars in worth more than its expected daily value on 19 September 2008. The nonlinear phase transition representing the terminal portion of the US Composite equity 150 Year second fractal phase transition appears to be a 9/22/22 day fractal decay sequence with 2 days shared between the second and third decay fractals. The nonlinear break will likely occur on the 17th trading day of the second fractal's 22 day sequence with greater nonlinearity after the 7-11th trading days of the third 22 day decay sequence. This will place the final intermediate major low two days prior to the earlier predicted 4 November 2008 low. In this scenario 14-16 October 2008 would represent the final major lower high. The 2-3 trading days immediately preceding 7 October 2008 will likely represent trillion dollar reversal hourly valuation fractal patterns for the great Wilshire. After a considerable period of economic contraction and social disarray lasting years, the seed corn of US 100,000 dollar insured deposits could represent a basis for long term economic growth, albeit initially at a much reduced real rate.Sun, 28 Sep 2008 12:19:44 +0100http://weblog.ecommunics.org/theeconomicfractalist/archive-2008.html#315The 150 Year Wilshire Primary Weekly Decay Fractal Sequence: 30/59 of 64-65/44 weeks :: x/2-2.5x/1.6x --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AU inverse weekly growth fractal: base 15/11 of 38/30.................... AU weekly decay fractal: 16/22 of40/40 weeks.......................... Comments: This decay fractal sequence for AU, proxy for the CRB, has been shifted with the first base fractal containing the apogee gold price of approximately 1000 US dollars. The week of 21-25 September was the final lower high, with 18 weeks to the second decay fractal low. Of all asset fractal valuation sequences, AU dating from 1932-1933 and from 1970 has the most elegant and perfect quantum fractal progression of growth and decay. Its mechanistic fractal progression will likely be often studied by quantitive macroeconomic scientists of the future. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ten Year Notes: 22(4 borrowed)/50 of 55/44 weeks............................ Comments: 4 weeks are likely borrowed from the preceding terminal decay portion of a 64-65 month second fractal growth cycle with the first base of 27 months starting in 2000. The true weekly progression can be better seen on the larger fractal scale monthly units as a 5/12 of 13 to 14monthly fractal progression with an expected fall in the long bond (higher interest rates) for about 5 more weeks.Sat, 20 Sep 2008 15:43:29 +0100http://weblog.ecommunics.org/theeconomicfractalist/archive-2008.html#313The 150 Year Phase Transition Second Fractal Decay Sequence: 9/22/22 days with 2 Days Shared Over the last year the world's sovereign treasuries and world central banks have injected historically GNP-percentage-wise unprecedented liquidity into the world's financial system to provide daily and weekly cash flow for the composite financial industry and prevent systemic lock-up and collapse of the credit system. With the direct intervention into the 50 year rules of the market by the UK and US securities exchanges, a slight distortion of the the composite equities' absolute daily values have occurred over the last two days with the Wilshire gaining about 300 billion dollars in worth more than its expected daily value on 19 September 2008. The nonlinear phase transition representing the terminal portion of the US Composite equity 150 Year second fractal phase transition appears to be a 9/22/22 day fractal decay sequence with 2 days shared between the second and third decay fractals. This will place the final intermediate major low two days prior to the earlier predicted 4 November 2008 low. In this scenario 7 October 2008 would represent the final major lower high. The 2-3 trading days immediately preceding 7 October 2008 will likely represent trillion dollar reversal hourly valuation fractal patterns for the great Wilshire. After a considerable period of economic contraction and social disarray lasting years, the seed corn of US 100,000 dollar insured deposits could represent a basis for long term economic growth, albeit initially at a much reduced real rate. Sun, 14 Sep 2008 19:36:55 +0100http://weblog.ecommunics.org/theeconomicfractalist/archive-2008.html#311 As has been described in The Economic Fractalist, nonlinear breaks or gaps to lower valuations are the hallmarks of second fractal conclusions. For the United States' composite Wilshire, the progeny of earlier primitive 1787 New York and Boston stocks and later canal, and later yet, railroad stocks, a great 150 year US second fractal credit cycle starting in 1858 reached its first sub fractal apogee in 1929 and reached its second sub fractal apogee on 11 October 2007. These apogees represent peak areas of the money supply, generated by credit expansion through leveraged borrowing. In 1929 it was the forward buying of new washing machines, automobiles, and radios on credit and buying stocks on ten per cent margin. In 2007 it was the colossal unchecked credit expansion via leveraged housing prices with capital via the orchestration of pooled investors; it was the leveraged credit expansion based on artificially doubled and tripled housing valuations divorced from the reality of wages; and it was the shadowy credit expansion via speculative derivatives to the nth degree facilitated by the investment lending industry and their sophisticated computer software. The last six trading days have produced a quantum trading fractal growth pattern to a highly probable final saturation lower high for the Wilshire: with a first fractal of 31-32 15-minute units. This 32 unit first fractal is composed of a 5/13/10/7 15-minute unit x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal evolution. The second fractal is about 77 15-minute units in length with the readily identifiable nonlinear collapse at its terminal portion. The third fractal about 52-53 15-minute units in length or about 1.6 times the first fractal length. Fibonacci relationships come into play for third growth fractals under the umbrella of major larger scale decay periods and likewise near the terminal portions of final asymptotic decay areas. Accelerated decay in the larger scale fractal pattern is immediately ahead for the great Wilshire. The time area for the US 150 year credit cycle and its terminal second fractal nonlinearity is at hand.Sat, 06 Sep 2008 13:33:45 +0100http://weblog.ecommunics.org/theeconomicfractalist/archive-2008.html#309 Predictable patterns are the hallmarks of a science. The 150 year saturation nominal valuation interday high for the world's current largest composite equity market, the Wilshire, 11 October 2007 was predicted to the day. Can the exact major, albeit not final, valuation interday low for this composite index be likewise predicted to a day? By the simple quantum fractal decay patterns of nonstochastic Saturation Macroeconomics - 4 November 2008 is that day.Mon, 01 Sep 2008 12:09:24 +0100http://weblog.ecommunics.org/theeconomicfractalist/archive-2008.html#307http://www.economicfractalist.com/blog/Sat, 14 Jun 2008 17:28:46 +0100http://weblog.ecommunics.org/theeconomicfractalist/archive-2008.html#296From the Huffington Post on 9 and 10 October 2007: The Predicted Nominal Generational High for the Wilshire ___________________________________________________ Giuliani: Our Economy "Is The Last Best Hope Of Humanity"______________________________________________________________________ Mega Euphoria Present - What are the likely characteristics of the final high valuation trading day for the world proxy composite equity index, the Great Wilshire? ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... The US macroeconomy and credit markets are sehr schlecht. This politician like all others, is clueless. Yet the equity and commodity markets are blowing off in volcanic-like fashion. How will the final composite equity final high valuation day likely appear? Look at the great Wilshire for a minutely all time gapped high day above its previous day's closing high - and ending on the low of the day. That will likely be the final saturation footprint. Gold valuations, representative of various forms of global fiat money competing for short term solid tradeable, inheritable, nontaxable assets, completed a 11/27 to 28 day first and second fractal from the unified 16 August low. Will gold's growth valuation proceed to a third daily fractal? It Will - if there is enough investment money to support third fractal growth. A lot of enhanced investment borrowing is now transpiring since the Fed lowered the borrowing rate below that necessary level controlling speculative equity asset inflation. How will the Federal Reserve's 18 September decision turn out? posted 10/09/2007 at 19:49:57 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Australian Dollar Hits 23-Year High Against US____________________________________________________________________________________ Generational US Consumer Saturation Macroeconomics - 11 October 2007: the Top Valuation Day for the Wilshire ? Near the final weekly low for the US dollar? ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Watch for an opening day trading gap to the all time high for the Wilshire on 11 October with a closing at the low of the day. While the US dollar will likely be lower against other fiats and gold, it is near its multi weekly nadir. posted 10/10/2007 at 22:23:35 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Valuation saturation fractal analysis prospectively predicted the 11 October 2007 nominal high for the great Wilshire. While the predicted US dollar nadir against the basket average of other world currencies extended for 5 more months, retrospectively it reached its nadir in a perfect 12/30/23-24/18-19 month x/2.5x/2x/1.5x deteriorating patterned progression that characterizes the perfect quantum fractal nature of relative ongoing asset valuations within the complex macroeconomic system. Commodity valuations, like tulip valuations 370 years before, have been influenced by a composite of supply and demand of the masses and credit availability to those who can and do speculate. Commodity speculation has been encouraged by competing unattractive interest rates which causes depositors in interest bearing and taxed accounts to daily lose purchasing power relative to the ongoing lower interest rate induced inflation. Unlike tulip malinvestment, commodity speculation and malinvestment have had profound effects on the valuations of basic living expenses for the paycheck-to-paycheck-living masses and equity-negative new home owners. With the background of the housing industry's and its multi-associated interdependent industries' collapse, the steadily increasing inflationary pressures of basic living expenses are the qualitative camel back breaking single daily added straws for this fragile debt ridden system. Basic commodity cost are facilitating job decline in the cash flow and profit dependent marginalized real private sector. Banks which are underwater with nonperforming debt and dependent on revolving loans from the Central Banks, are frigidly constrained in further credit expansion. Ultimately commodity over valuations are grounded in the self limiting and self balancing real economy of the masses which is dependent on summation wages,total debt, credit availability, asset valuation, and supply and demand. Does the macroeconomy's simple mathematical ordered fractal progression described in the final posting of The Economic Fractalist allow prediction, with relative accuracy, of the expected great 150 year US second fractal discontinuity and nonlinearity? A 23/44 of 48/46-52 week x/2x/2x Wilshire decay fractal is discernible as of 14 June 2008 with the nonlinear discontinuity occurring likely near or shortly after the 46th week of the second fractal and ending during the 48th week of 7-11 July 2008. The third decay fractal of 46-52 weeks will take the Wilshire to a lower asymptotic low - to a valuation below the expectation of all reasonable pronosticators. A break down at a basic second fractal progression within a larger second fractal progression (synchronization of second fractal nonlinearities) has been a long expected qualitative fractal scenario. Starting 22 January 2008, a 38-39 day base fractal x has formed with an expected second fractal nonlinearity between 2 and 2.5x or between day 76 and day 97. This smaller second fractal nonlinearity is contained in and coincides with the larger 46-48 week second fractal nonlinearity whose base of 23 weeks contains the 19 July 2007 Wilshire high.Sun, 18 May 2008 15:58:55 +0100http://weblog.ecommunics.org/theeconomicfractalist/archive-2008.html#294While 11 October 2007 was the absolute nominal high - and the predicted high by quantum fractal analysis - at 15938.99 for the Wilshire, the Wilshire's integral weekly averaged high occurred in the 23 week fractal containing the 22nd month of the third fractal of a 11/27/22 month fractal sequence beginning in October 2002 and containing 19 July 2007, the third fractal's 22nd month daily nominal high. A reflexive 20/50/40 day x/2.5x/2x fractal resulted in the 11 October 2007 40th day high and third fractal's daily high. It is this 23 week 3.5/8/6/5 :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x fractal series that is the likely base for the weekly and monthly decay fractal series to follow. A distortion of the decay sequence - beneficial for the short term to the masses - has likely occurred by the historical world central bank intervention providing an equivalent of more than a trillion US dollar's worth of short term revolving credit to underwater financial institutions and preventing for the short term a cataclysmic global macroeconomic credit lock-up and collapse. As well with regards to the US central bank, the lowering the Fed funds interbank interest rates has had some effect on US treasury rates more closely approximating the US composite equities' average percentage dividend returns and preventing for the short term an even more massive egress of investment money from equities into treasuries. Indeed with the contraction of the real economy and with equity PE ratio's becoming progressively more skewed relative to corporations ongoing profits in that contracting real economy , an interest rate dependent facilitated malinvestment of a type is now occurring in the equity markets. All the macroeconomy's listed primary elements in the final posting of The Economic Fractalist are integratively countervailing and self limiting and asset devolution will come into agreement with ongoing composite debt resolution and with the reality of the ongoing primarily private, verses governmental, wage earner macroeconomy. This real economy has enormous evolving stressors: decreasing real estate net worth, increasing inflation of all consumer necessities, increasing nominal debt and total/(net worth and ongoing wages) percentage debt, credit tightening, and contracting jobs relating to the real estate, financial, insurance, leisure, and durable household products industries. Equity and commodity asset valuations will come into alignment with the reality of this constrained and contracting real consumer economy. These macroeconomic forces are inexorable, deterministic, necessary, and will cause asset devolution to occur in an identifiable quantum decay fractal pattern. The question is this: will this devolution occur in a x/2x/2x decay pattern or in a x/2.5x/2.5x decay pattern, the latter which characterized both the 1929 and the 2000 equity decay process both resulting in a devolution of about 32 months from valuation highs to lows. With a base of 23 weeks or 6 months, a x/2x/2x decay pattern would be equivalent to a 23/46-50/46-50 weekly or a 6/12-13/12-13 monthly decay fractal . A x/2.5x/2.5x decay pattern would result in a 23/58-60/58-60 weekly or in a 6/15/15 monthly decay fractal. Could the trillion dollar equivalent central bank credit support intervention and the lowering of interest rates have converted a quantum decay pattern of x/2x/2x into a quantum decay pattern of x/2.5x/2.5x? The Nikkei is nearing an ideal lower top of a long three phase deteriorating growth fractal since its first devaluation phase in 1989-1990 with a 35-36/ 88/ 68 of 70 monthly fractal sequence. The Japanese central bank has maintained near zero interest rates and the government has undertaken massive federal debt during these last 18 years to prevent a 1990 real estate debt default. The great Wilshire is within the window of a historical 150 year second fractal nonlinear collapse with its 74 year first subfractal reaching a nadir in 1932. The second subfractal has been composed of a 17/33 year first and second fractal series skewed by the base fractals massive War World II governmental debt and expenditures and ending in 1982. The third subfractal of this series has been composed of a 9 year base from 1982 to 1990 and an 18 year subsequent second fractal as of 2008. This 18 year second fractal corresponds to Japan's three phase fractal series heretofore mentioned. Two sequential bubbles have occurred since 1990 - the high tech computer bubble and the financial services' collective instruments debt bubble which facilitated malinvestment, oversupply, and overvaluation of US and world real estate. While it is possible for a final malinvestment generic mini equity bubble to now occur, propelled by artificially low interest rates - very much out of alignment with ongoing inflation - the countervailing forces of the real consumer economy will provide the qualitative causes and reasons for the quantum fractal decay patterns that are ongoing and lie ahead.Sat, 10 May 2008 12:36:52 +0100http://weblog.ecommunics.org/theeconomicfractalist/archive-2008.html#292On 16 August 2007, a fractal convergence of US composite equities and commodties occurred with the Wilshire and CRB reaching synchronized major valuation lows. Since that day the two investment instrument valuation fractals have diverged with the CRB receiving preferential money flow with associated rising commodity prices for all consumers. What course would these valuation fractal patterns have taken had the central banks not intervened supporting the financial institutions with massive short term revolving credit - and are the central banks' actions sustainable? Regardless of the proportion that is attributable to supply and demand or to pure speculation and money flow phenomena, in recent months wage earners have added record amounts of credit card debt in order to make ends meet. The real economy at the consumer wage earner level is reeling. The ideal closure window of the October 2002 Wilshire 11/27/27 month fractal has up to 26 weeks remaining which correlates to an ongoing inverse growh of decay Wilshire fractal and long term and short term US debt instrument fractals. At the 27th month or 115th week of the third 2002 Wilshire fractal, a 19 day ideal decay fractal pattern was discerned. The current count of this decay fractal - supported by collective monetary policy - is 19/39/39 days as of the close of the trading day on 9 May 2008. GM, as a microcosm so representative of the US with debt, entitlement obligations, and business competitiveness equivalences, has 9 weeks to reach a potential major low at 34/85 weeks. New Century whose valuation performance has exceeded most others in recent days is characterized by a 18/41/35:: x/2-2.5x/2x day fractal. At the 150th year of the US second fractal and at the second circa 75 year generational saturation area, expect unexpected fractal nonlinearity. _______________________________________ A recent posting suggested 9 or so more weeks of anticipated equity growth; at present with the data available and recognition of the 9 May 08 concluding 19/39/39 day world equity fractal and inverse fractal patterns, this does not appear likely.