Posted at 2007-12-23 17:04:37 by theeconomicfractalist
If the macroeconomy operates in a purely deterministic mathematical simple and quantum process governed by the simple countervailing elements as described in the the final posting of the Economic Fractalist, the saturation valuation areas and nonlinear breaks should be identifiable retrospectively and prospectively. This predictability of 'patterned behavior' characterizes the nature of a true science. What this potential science of saturation macroeconomics suggests is something that is intuitively and qualitatively reasonable - that there are limits to the amount of dysequilibria that can occur within a complex system. Nonlinearity - whether it be an exploding star, an earthquake, or the cessation of a beating heart - occurs at one point in a time ordered deterministic series of events where apparent linearity is operative the majority of time but where non apparent stresses are building to a non exceedable limit. The whole energy universe - the strings of energy that compose it and the space that it occupies - likely operates on a unifying principle: that fractal energy 'growth' occurs in an apparent linear manner with fractal associations and minor dissociations of the composite various energy strings - that also tie the system together - build to a limit with sudden fractal rearrangement at the insurmountable stress points. This is the nonlinearity at the terminal portions of Lammert second fractals.
19 July 2007 and 11 October 2007 were predicted as valuation saturation highs for the 15 trillion dollar composite Wilshire using the simple quantum laws of valuation saturation macroeconomics.
The composite CRB and Wilshire are moving to final high and lower high valuations respectively as summation debt servicing inevitably gains the upper hand over summation new debt creation. Since its 16 August low, gold has followed a nearly ideal x/2.5x/2x/1.5x pattern of 11/27/22/17 days with a new 9 day base fractal in the terminal portion of the 17 day decay fractal. This 9 day base currently has a second fractal of 16 days with an expected ideal high in 2 days or day 18 (2x) of the second fractal. The Wilshire since its sister low on 16 August has followed a decaying growth fractal of 17-18/44/31-32 of 34-35 days with an ideal final expected high in likewise 2 to 3 days on 26-27 December 2007. The lower high gap for the SPX and FTSE futures on 21 December is a senescence marker for third fractal growth finale of the 17-18/44/34-35 days terminal series. New Century which epitomizes the debt industry responsible for the current valuation height of the CRB and Wilshire indices, was an underperformer on 21 December losing 11.76 percent of value and resting at 1 and 1/2 pennies - still infinitely overvalued as it was at 65 dollars in December 04.
Posted at 2007-12-15 14:51:16 by theeconomicfractalist
From 'The New Economist'
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Why Is Elvis on Burkina Faso postage stamps?:
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The United States consumer and government which borrow Burkino's annual GDP about every 7 to 8 days, has placed George Washington on its basic currency unit (and postage stamps) with a more profound and lucrative commercialization of its global credit extension. Likewise the International currency market now appears to have a new propensity for George Washington's. Since mid 2001 the British Pound valued against US dollars has followed a pristine Lammert growth and decay fractal series: x/2.5x/2x/1.6x of 8/20/16/13 months followed by a weekly growth series of 20/50/40 weeks (x/2.5x/2x) with a characteristic nonlinear break at week 50 of the second fractal. As for New Century currently valued at less than .025 George Washington's, it is following a deteriorating growth fractal of 14/35/28-35 days with the 28th day of the third fractal occurring on 7 December 2007.
Posted by: theeconomicfractallist | Friday, December 07, 2007 at 10:41 AM
Posted at 2007-11-26 10:51:37 by theeconomicfractalist
From the new blog site "Lammert''
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Sunday, November 25, 2007
Valuation Saturation Fractal Analysis - A Real Science?
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November 25, 2007
The process of validation for the hypothesis of quantum fractal growth and decay of asset valuation as precisely representative of a heretofore unknown intrinsic quantitative operative nature of the complex macroeconomic system, was earlier proposed in the final update of The Economic Fractalist: " Saturation Curve Fractal Analysis - A Real Science? In order to qualify as a true science, the subject entity must be testable by scientific method and have underlying laws that operate in the real physical environment. These laws must be repetitively provable and have reasonable predictability for different applications. Scientific testing in college biology, chemistry, and physics laboratories usually results in experimental values that roughly support the underlying mathematical equations and theoretical constructs. If indeed complex economic systems travel by the simple quantum laws that observational fractal analysis suggests, a similar validity should be testable and provable, retrospectively and prospectively, in the great laboratory of readily obtainable asset valuation saturation curves."
The valuations of General Motors have often been used because of GM's remarkable likeness at small scale to the United States' current position of debt, entitlements, obligations, and global competitiveness. GM's second subfractal of 15/36/30 x/2.5x/2x weeks with its recent decline below its one year trendline has been used a proxy microcosm marker for the United States' true underlying debt-driven supporting money supply. Because of its largeness and its plurality of world equity value, the Wilshire's hourly, daily, weekly, monthly valuations have been primarily used to examine and test the macro performance of simple 'laws' contained within ' The Economic Fractalist ' macroeconomic saturation quantum fractal hypothesis: the elegantly simple fractal growth proportionality relationship: x/2.5x/2x, the second fractal's sine qua non nonlinearity between 2x and 2.5x, the primary simple decay relationships conforming generally to a y/2.5y/2.5y fractal pattern, and the principal that decay is confluent and begins in the terminal portion of growth. The Wilshire's saturation tops of 19 July 2007 and 11 October 2007 were prospectively identified using the simple quantum relationships. The Wilshire's 11/27/22 x/2.5x/2x month growth from October 2002 and 75/150 week x/2x growth since March 2003 resulted in the saturation July 2007 top. The Wilshire's day- price-volume triple-product area of May-June-July 2007 still exceeds that of the September-October-November 2007 similar triple-product area. July's 20 day third fractal of a12/30/20 day fractal sequence became the base for a 20/50/40 day fractal sequence ending on 11 October 2007. 11 October is contained within a second fractal with a 17-18 day first fractal base beginning on 16 August. 11 October may well be contained within the first decay base with synchronized classic and caricatured second fractal decay of multiple first fractal bases of 70 years, 8 years, 75 weeks, 62 weeks, and 41 weeks. There are four competing simple mathematical models of quantum fractal decay representing this nonlinear synchronized second fractal area.. Currently as of 25 November, the 13/24 of 32-33/32-33 day decay fractal appears most likely. If this model is correct the Wilshire's 5 year trendline will likely be breached between days 26 and 32-33 of the second fractal. If this decay model is correct, it is likely that gold and oil will also see devaluation during this time frame with the dollar gaining in valuation against other currencies. The other fractal possibility from the 16 August low is a 17-18/44/11 of 34-35 day deteriorating growth fractal. If there is enough ongoing debt expansion, perhaps via the vehicle of holiday seasonal debt, the composite US equity markets could positively maintain its third fractal growth until the new year. Decay after this point would still be within the time frame area of synchronized second fractal nonlinearity and consistent with the underlying quantum laws.
Posted by Lammert at 2:38 PM
Posted at 2007-11-22 16:20:50 by theeconomicfractalist
A new blog ......" Lammert " ..............................................................................................................
http://theeconomicfractalist.blogspot.com...............................................
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Thursday, November 22, 2007
Lammert Quantitative Saturation and Decay Macroeconomics
Welcome to the small alcove for the advancement of cause and effect saturation and decay macroeconomics. This site pursues the hypothesis that the nature of market valuations and economic cycles is both causal and quantitatively decipherable. Valuations conform to fractal cyclical patterns that can be recognized, interpreted in conjunction with data emanating from the macroeconomic system, and used with short term and long-term predicative power. Information from this site is not intended to be construed as investment advice or as an investment tool. This site has been constructed because of the expected inevitability of a major sudden phase transition to occur at the conclusion of a grand 140 plus-year second fractal cycle starting in 1858. For the masses this phase transition will occur both very unexpectedly and very suddenly. Approaching the global macro economy from such a causal and fractal Weltanschauung may help those considering further debt obligation and those in position of formulating future interest rate and monetary policy. The cyclical nature of the macroeconomic system operates by causality rather than chance. Valuations of assets are controlled chiefly by interest rates - the cost of money. Lowering nominal interest rates, below asset inflation controlling rates, leads to macro economical disequilibria with excessive money expansion through increased borrowing. This borrowing and money expansion is enhanced by lending parameters and devices which include various types of fractional of derivative lending. This money expansion engenders unbalanced forward consumption, consumer saturation, overproduction, and inflation of assets and consumer items. With the addition of ongoing wages of the consumer masses and accumulating debt service obligations, these oppositional elements are countervailing, and periodic macroeconomic imbalances will self correct. Market overvaluation saturation and decay corrections to new lower saturation points occur in a fractal manner. Cyclical patterns can readily be identified on valuation charts denominated in minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly units. The transitional asymptote of overvaluation saturation curves are followed by decay curves which bring market valuations to lowered decay saturation levels where intelligent buyers reenter the market. Valuation fractal cycles of yearly and multi-yearly lengths are based on saturation at the consumer level. Human psychology is a decidedly lagging indicator and follows as an end effect of the mechanistic saturation and decay evolutions in the market. Market contrarians understand these turning points and anticipate the directional changes of the markets based both on market asymptotic overvaluation saturation areas or decay end-point saturation characteristics and counter intuitively by recognizing the lagging psychological parameters of extreme optimism or pessimism in reaction to the mechanistic respective high and low points. Both the degree of valuation and the cyclical time course of valuation evolutions appear to conform to range bound near quantum-like units and quantum related Fibonacci numbers. While the absolute degree of valuation is influenced by the absolute interest rate, the percentage or proportionality changes of valuations from highs to lows and lengths of time to decay and intra-cycle nodal points appear to conform to these range bound near quantum units. The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X followed by a decay sequence of 1.5-1.6X; many ideal decay fractal sequences devolve in a Y/2.5Y/2.5Y fractal sequence. 'X' and 'Y' represents the fractal unit of time demoninated in minutes, hours, days, weeks, month and years. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. The second cycle may be composed of two roughly equal time units or one confluent time unit. A sudden nonlinear drop during the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x, which has import for the current 140 year grand fractal cycle, now in its 147th year. . The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves. The current 70 year second fractal subfractal generational saturation area is characterized by extreme debt of the leading economic power and its citizen consumers. Quantum Fractal evolution has become idealized allowing precise predictions of both the 17 July 2007 and 11 October 2007 saturation highs for the Wilshire, America's 15 trillion dollar valuation composite equity market and the global macroeconomy's proxy quantitative and quantum fractal barometer. ..................................................................................................................................... Wilshire Decay fractal possibilities:
................................................................................................................................. Wlshire Decay Models A, B, C, and D as of 21 November: ..................................................................................................................................... A 9/22 of 23/23 days B 11/23 of 27-28/27-28 days ( a rerun of 1929) C 13/23 of 32/32 days and D 16/8 of 40/40 days with day 27 of the third fractal a major low and day 40 a final lower low. ............................................................................................................................... Decay Models A, B, and C are 1929 scenarios representing a primary decay followed by an expected 25-30 months of secondary and tertiary decay to a final low in 2010. ............................................................................................................................... Decay Model D implies one further 28-36 or so month credit cycle bolstered by zero fed funds rates and some sort of debt postponement or debt rescheduling scheme with a probable secondary lower peak in 2010. Even the latter possible transient best case scenario Model D, would be adversely impacted by inflation and peak oil.
Posted at 2007-11-10 15:05:56 by theeconomicfractalist
Posted at 2007-10-21 01:30:47 by theeconomicfractalist Often it is only in retrospect that a pattern or law can be appreciated - seen from the vantage point of additional data points and/or in the context of a more complete picture. Stated otherwise, the history of science has been for the most part characterized by scientists observing an ongoing process without correctly perceiving or predicting how ongoing events relate to the whole or to the underlying laws of the process. Advances in theory and understanding are made incrementally. The Big Bang theory is illustrative. Currently there is great scientific focus in putting the 'Big Bang Event' representing man's 'small finite' universe in the context of the whole energy system or 'real infinite' universe. Physicists and their mathematical constructs are not quite there yet but conceivably in the future will understand perfectly the ongoing data from the both subatomic system and macro 'big bang' system in relationship to the literally, infinitely larger 'whole system or universe ' by later retrospective rear viewing. Perhaps 'our small finite universe' is 'an anomalous result' of two interacting fractal energy membranes emanating from the 'One' , 'the Whole, the Never Ending, Never Beginning, Always There, infinite fractalized energy structure' having an infinite number of high energy membranes of various fractal orders. Two dynamic (small, medium, large, eg) rippling fractal energy membranes interact/touch/repel each other and create a concentrated energy point within the repelled membranes' inner space with an ensuing explosion of this concentrated energy point and subsequent expansion and 'cooling' of that original energy flash point within the repelled inner space of the two fractal energy membranes. The expanding bit of energy between the fractal energy membrane becomes man's physical space-time-matter, man's universe, man's galaxies, man's black holes, and man's sun and earth. This 'anomaly' within the otherwise infinitely larger confluent energy system is actually a routine occurrence between an infinite number of fractalized membranes of various orders with an infinite number of big bangs of variable starting energy sizes and in variable sizes of inner spaces within an infinite number intermembrane innerspaces - all part of the One great energy Universe. With eternity as a time scale ultimate full reabsorption of these infinite big bang dots of energy occurs into the fractally ordered energy membranes of 'the One Great and Infinite Universe. Perhaps all the subatomic strings of energy that are 'so important' to man within his small intermembrane innerspace void are arranged in defined growth and decay fractal patterns and arrays forming the basis of the subatomic quarks, bosons, hadrons, et. al. The fractal growth and decay of energy units or strings into continuously evolving larger and smaller order fractal decay and growth array associations may be the underlying cause for both 'the structure of matter' within the inner membrane spaces and the known four attractive forces. Restated perhaps the basic law's of the high energy great universe's including the low energy minuscule Big Bang 'anomaly' are all based on fractal growth and decay and fractal rearrangement of basic energy units or strings. All that is of the universe including the earth, organisms, and human activity including the balancing and efficient quantum laws of macroeconomics may likewise be based on like fractal growth and decay principals. Oddly and somewhat ironically maybe within the simple observed fractal patterns and operations of these tangential epiphenomena products of the pure energy universe - including the epiphenomena of quantum fractal saturation macroeconomics - lies the key for the Tao of the laws of fractal growth and decay and energy association of the One Great Energy Universe. Is fractal growth and decay and association the way the energy universe operates, the way it is self-assembled and reassembled and associated and how it works at all energy levels of scale and dimension? ............................................................................................................................ Dating from 1787-88 there are actually 6 ongoing current evolving synchronized second fractal formations of US equity generational classes. The hallmark of all second fractal including that of october 1987 is nonlinearity in the terminal portion. With regards to the preceding discussion there will be quantum fractal order to this nonlinearity when viewed from the retrospective. Prospectively there is an identified most efficient pattern taking the valuation to expected quantum time-ordered fractal low........................................................................................... ................................................................................................................ 5 November 2007................................................... Four Perfect Quantum Saturation and Decay Fractal Series... This is the predicted saturation and decay fractal solution to the Wilshire, which operating under the circumstances of extreme debt. The low for the Wilshire is estimated to be in 5 +37-38+37-38 days -2 or 77-79 trading days; the identified decay fractal on 4 November (Sunday) is a 10 of 15/37-38/37-38 day decay fractal. The low will complete a 75/187 week first and second fractal series, a 62/126 week first and second fractal series and a 42/86 week first and second fractal series. #1. Lammert Maximal Growth Fractal: Starting in the saturation of week 150 2x of the 75 week base 1st fractal beginning in March 2007: Starting from the low on 14 March 2007: 12/30/20 days; then using the 20 day third fractal as the starting saturation base first fractal: x/2.5x/2x :: 20/50/40 days With day 40 2x , 11 October 2007 and 2.5x day 50 of the maximal third fractal length 20/50/50 contained in a 3/8/8 day cup with 11 October day 3 of the first subfractal (3/8/8 days) - Again week 150 and month 22 of 75/150 weeks and 11/27/22 months respectively are contained in the saturation area of early time frame of the 50 day second fractal. #2.The Perfect Deteriorating Lammert 'Growth' Fractal: The perfect deteriorating Lammert growth fractal beginning in the area of the initiation of the 40 day third fractal ending on 11 October 2007 and commencing 16 August 2007: 17-18/45/36-38/ 25-26 days x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x. #3. The Perfect Lammert Decay Fractal Series 15/38/38 y/2.5y/2.5y days starting 22 October 2007 #4. The Perfect Lammert 'Inverse Growth' of Decay Fractal; 15 38/38 days starting 11 October 2007...............................................................
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11 November Analysis: To the #2, #3, and #4 quantum Lammert base fractals listed above add 1 day: #2: 19/47-48/47-48; 38/28-30 days X/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x); #3 16/39-40/39-40 days (y/2.5y/2.5y) commencing 24 October vice 22 October; and #4 16/39-40/39-40 x/2.5x/2.5x respectively. If this saturation and decay model is correct, November 13/14/and perhaps 15 will represent the second fractal nonlinear break for the 19 day base(beginning 2 trading days before 16 August - growth begins in decay .) As to #1 above, day 50 of the 20/50/50 day saturation fractal starting with a 20 day base identical to the third fractal of the 12/30/20 day fractal which began on 14 march 07, now sits midway in a cup between day 40 October 11, the Wilshire' nominal high and day 60 8 November. Day 61, 9 November, began with a nonlinear break downward, distinctly separating it from day 60. If this is correct and the nonlinear break over 13/14/15 is modest, with zero Fed Fund rates and emergency lending initiatives, there is a possibility of a 36 month growth extension after the conclusion of the current multi-week (ideally 17 or so)fractal decay. Parenthetically, an alternative quantum model which would be much more conducive for America's and Europe's buying holiday season and reciprocally the Chinese selling season, would place day 45 or 9 November of an 18/45 day fractal starting 16 August for the Wilshire as a second fractal terminal low with subsequent third fractal growth potentially through the holiday season. For the 2007 US and European seasonal economy, this alternative model would be optimal. Qualitatively, lower yields now occurring in the money market funds and US debt instruments could be an explanation for more malinvestment in the over valued and paradoxically perfectly valued equity market. Then again, as in the alcove main page message of 'The Economic Fractalist' - massive nonlinear collapse is now possible - with the synchronization of the terminal portions of multiple second fractals - and the ongoing information regarding US consumer sentiment, US mortgage defaults, and devaluation and total voiding, i.e., default of derivative debt instruments held by the financial and life insurance industries. Observe the activity of the composite equity valuations on 13,14,15 November 2007........................................................
12 November Update and corrections to11 November Analysis: To the #2, #3, and #4 quantum Lammert base fractals listed in the 5 November posting: add 1 day: #2: 18-19/46-48/37-38/28-30 days X/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x); #3 16/39-40/39-40 days (y/2.5y/2.5y) commencing 22 October (as in the original 5 November posting); and #4 16/39-40/39-40 x/2.5x/2.5x respectively.
Posted at 2007-10-21 01:30:47 by theeconomicfractalist
Often it is only in retrospect that a pattern or law can be appreciated - seen from the vantage point of additional data points and/or in the context of a more complete picture. Stated otherwise, the history of science has been for the most part characterized by scientists observing an ongoing process without correctly perceiving or predicting how ongoing events relate to the whole or to the underlying laws of the process. Advances in theory and understanding are made incrementally. The Big Bang theory is illustrative. Currently there is great scientific focus in putting the 'Big Bang Event' representing man's 'small finite' universe in the context of the whole energy system or 'real infinite' universe. Physicists and their mathematical constructs are not quite there yet but conceivably in the future will understand perfectly the ongoing data from the both subatomic system and macro 'big bang' system in relationship to the literally, infinitely larger 'whole system or universe ' by later retrospective rear viewing. Perhaps 'our small finite universe' is 'an anomalous result' of two interacting fractal energy membranes emanating from the 'One' , 'the Whole, the Never Ending, Never Beginning, Always There, infinite fractalized energy structure' having an infinite number of high energy membranes of various fractal orders. Two dynamic (small, medium, large, eg) rippling fractal energy membranes interact/touch/repel each other and create a concentrated energy point within the repelled membranes' inner space with an ensuing explosion of this concentrated energy point and subsequent expansion and 'cooling' of that original energy flash point within the repelled inner space of the two fractal energy membranes. The expanding bit of energy between the fractal energy membrane becomes man's physical space-time-matter, man's universe, man's galaxies, man's black holes, and man's sun and earth. This 'anomaly' within the otherwise infinitely larger confluent energy system is actually a routine occurrence between an infinite number of fractalized membranes of various orders with an infinite number of big bangs of variable starting energy sizes and in variable sizes of inner spaces within an infinite number intermembrane innerspaces - all part of the One great energy Universe. With eternity as a time scale ultimate full reabsorption of these infinite big bang dots of energy occurs into the fractally ordered energy membranes of 'the One Great and Infinite Universe. Perhaps all the subatomic strings of energy that are 'so important' to man within his small intermembrane innerspace void are arranged in defined growth and decay fractal patterns and arrays forming the basis of the subatomic quarks, bosons, hadrons, et. al. The fractal growth and decay of energy units or strings into continuously evolving larger and smaller order fractal decay and growth array associations may be the underlying cause for both 'the structure of matter' within the inner membrane spaces and the known four attractive forces. Restated perhaps the basic law's of the high energy great universe's including the low energy minuscule Big Bang 'anomaly' are all based on fractal growth and decay and fractal rearrangement of basic energy units or strings. All that is of the universe including the earth, organisms, and human activity including the balancing and efficient quantum laws of macroeconomics may likewise be based on like fractal growth and decay principals. Oddly and somewhat ironically maybe within the simple observed fractal patterns and operations of these tangential epiphenomena products of the pure energy universe - including the epiphenomena of quantum fractal saturation macroeconomics - lies the key for the Tao of the laws of fractal growth and decay and energy association of the One Great Energy Universe. Is fractal growth and decay and association the way the energy universe operates, the way it is self-assembled and reassembled and associated and how it works at all energy levels of scale and dimension?
............................................................................................................................
Dating from 1787-88 there are actually 6 ongoing current evolving synchronized second fractal formations of US equity generational classes. The hallmark of all second fractal including that of october 1987 is nonlinearity in the terminal portion. With regards to the preceding discussion there will be quantum fractal order to this nonlinearity when viewed from the retrospective. Prospectively there is an identified most efficient pattern taking the valuation to expected quantum time-ordered fractal low...........................................................................................
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5 November 2007...................................................
Four Perfect Quantum Saturation and Decay Fractal Series...
This is the predicted saturation and decay fractal solution to the Wilshire, which operating under the circumstances of extreme debt. The low for the Wilshire is estimated to be in 5 +37-38+37-38 days -2 or 77-79 trading days; the identified decay fractal on 4 November (Sunday) is a 10 of 15/37-38/37-38 day decay fractal. The low will complete a 75/187 week first and second fractal series, a 62/126 week first and second
fractal series and a 42/86 week first and second fractal series.
1. Lammert Maximal Growth Fractal:
Starting in the saturation of week 150 2x of the 75 week base 1st
fractal beginning in March 2007:
Starting from the low on 14 March 2007: 12/30/20 days; then using the
20 day third fractal as the starting saturation base first fractal:
x/2.5x/2x :: 20/50/40 days
With day 40 2x , 11 October 2007 and 2.5x day 50 of the maximal
third fractal length 20/50/50 contained in a 3/8/8 day cup with 11
October day 3 of the first subfractal (3/8/8 days)
- Again week 150 and month 22 of 75/150 weeks and 11/27/22 months
respectively are contained in the saturation area of early time frame
of the 50 day second fractal.
2.The Perfect Deteriorating Lammert 'Growth' Fractal:
The perfect deteriorating Lammert growth fractal beginning in the area
of the 40 day third fractal ending on 11 October 2007 and commencing
16 August 2007: 17-18/45/36-38/ 25-26 days x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x.
3. The Perfect Lammert Decay Fractal Series
15/38/38 y/2.5y/2.5y days starting 22 October 2007
4. The Perfect Lammert 'Inverse Growth' of Decay Fractal;
15 38/38 days starting 11 October 2007
Posted at 2007-10-13 20:17:28 by theeconomicfractalist
11 October 2007, the nominal top for the great Wilshire? A Final Saturation Daily Fractal Series of x/2.5x/2x Along the Asymptotic 22 Week High Portion of the Wilshire Valuation Saturation Curve - Proxy for Global and American Consumer Macroeconomic Saturation. A Confirmation of Valuation Fractal Analysis
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Does the Macroeconomy travel by heretofore unknown simple fractal valuation patterns to valuation saturation peaks which are limited by the intrinsic self-feedback control mechanisms inherent within the complex system related to the temporal evolution of composite integral debt, nonpayable bad debt undergoing default, over valuation of assets, total number of jobs dependent on saturation characteristics, and composite integral wages related to those jobs? The evolving valuation fractal patterns certainly exist and have an internal consistency that could by smarter interpreters be anticipated prospectively - and for laggards more often are discerned retrospectively. The Great Wilshire, the greatest of all national equity markets in terms of total valuation can be viewed as a proxy for global equity asset valuation. It has nominally increased about 8-9 percent from 14700 to 15800 from March 2000 to October 2007 or nominally about 1.2 percent a year. Valued against the CRB, world housing prices, in terms of other major fiat currencies, and against the equity markets of new US outsourced manufacturing countries, it has grossly underperformed, losing thirty to fifty percent of global purchasing and 'trading unit' power. Since its low in October 2002 and March 2003 it has followed two dominant fractal patterns, a 11/27/22 x/2.5x/2x month fractal resulting in a top at month 22 of the third fractal in July 2007 and respectively a 75/150 x/2x week fractal resulting in an intermediate area high in June 2007 at week 150. It is the Wilshire's probable saturation area of May-October 2007 lasting about 22 weeks that is of fractal interest. There is little doubt that since July 2006 new US investment money slated previously for US housing development and speculation has been diverted into equities and commodities causing a blow-off pattern for the Wilshire and the CRB and even greater for foreign equity exchanges such as China, southeast Asia, et. al., which receive the majority of US mutual fund investment. The current Wilshire fractal pattern of interest starts from the low on 14 March 2007 with a pattern of 13/30/20 days. 11 May 2007 concludes the 30 day second fractal. The Wilshire's'final x/2.5x/2x (to 2.5x) saturation fractal series'' begins with the 20 day third fractal of the preceding growth series. Starting on 11 May this series, as of 13 October, has progressed in a 20/49/41 day fractal pattern with 16 August at the 49 day 2.5x low and 11 October at the 40 day 2x high. On 11 October 2007 the Wilshire gapped in a minutely fashion at the day's opening above its previous day's closing high and to a new record high. At its close it was near the low of the trading day and below the preceding day's close. This exhaustion gap activity for the Great Wilshire occurred on 40th or 2x day of the defined 20/49/40 day saturation fractal series. From the lows on day 40, 11 October, a perfect 6/14/12 x/2.5x/2x 15-minute unit fractal can be easily observed taking the Wilshire to its close on 12 October 2007. Even with the pricing aberration and fractal caricaturization associated with the largely unanticipated 0.5 per cent Fed Funds rate cut, if the Wilshire's price-volume-time multiple and area under the curve for July 2007 ultimately exceeds that of its recent October price-volume-time integration, the 11/27/22 monthly Wilshire high will maintain its position as the price-volume-time composite valuation high for the asymptotic area of Wilshire's saturation curve - proxy for the global macroeconomic system. Will the 20/49 40 day fractal series proceed further .... to 20/49/49-50? Not likely. There appear to be too many confirmations of a final fractal high. Last week GM completed a 15/36/30 x/2.5x/2x week fractal with gapped highs on the last 2 trading days and Ford completed a 22/44 week x/2x first and second fractal series. Bank of America completed a tentative 10/25/25 day x/2.5x/2.5x fractal on 12 October. If this transpires as predicted, valuation fractal analysis and the simple quantum natural laws governing the macroeconomic system will be largely confirmed.
Posted at 2007-09-24 01:24:51 by theeconomicfractalist
The 11/27/22 Month X/2.5X/2X 15 Trillion Dollar Wilshire Lammert Growth Fractal: The Mathematical Quantum Fractal Nature of Global Macroeconomic Saturation
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Within the 11/27/22 Month Wilshire Fractal: the 75/150 Week Wilshire Fractal. Synchronized Second Fractal Equity Collapse Following Final x/2.5x/2-2.5x 14-15/36/26 of 28-36 Daily Growth Initiated at Week 150 of the Wilshire 150-175 week Second Fractal
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Historical Global Asset Valuation Nonlinearity Ahead: Terminal Convergence and Regularity of Diverse Asset Valuation Daily Growth Fractal Patterns: The European Currencies, The US Commodities, and Global Composite Equities - All Initiated near the 150th week of the 150 week Wilshire second fractal.:14-15/34-37/26-27 of 28 to 34-37 Days
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This is a short and partial synopsis of the probable science of nonstochastic macroeconomic saturation and quantum fractal analysis of asset valuation saturation curves. Qualitatively valuation fractal growth of a particular asset begins at the end of maximal decay, and conversely, decay begins at the end of maximal growth. Every asset has a general pool of investment money interest. At the end of one maximal fractal growth period for a particular asset, money is rotated out that asset and into assets that have not reached their full saturation growth valuation. These cycles of growth and decay occur ideally in a near quantum four phase fractal periodicity described in 'The Economic Fractalist' main page. For very specific assets such as individual stocks, money interest may be variable with caricaturization of ideal fractal patterns. The fractal pattern becomes more ideal with the larger the class or collection of equities or assets. Rotation of investment money occurs both within a like investment entity such as the equity class and among larger major investment classes such as commodities, currencies, real estate, equities, and debt instruments. It is the comparative temporal fractal growth evolution of summation valuations of the individual large investment classes such as the FTSE, the Wilshire, the DAX, the CRB, the Euro, the Swiss Franc, the Ten Year Notes, and real estate proxy indices such as IYR that reflect larger investment money rotations between the larger classes. Fractal growth evolution of these investment classes also reflect major macroeconomic trends of money growth and macroeconomic saturation of assets and debt leading to necessary money contraction. Near the point of global macroeconomic saturation, there is a great deal of bad debt which is being and will be repudiated and either never repaid or restructured with likely partial repayment only. At this macroeconomic saturation point, assets are overproduced and overvalued in terms of future economic activity, ongoing wages, and ongoing debt. Wary lenders, assessing their crippled balance sheets which now includes repudiated debt and debt that is anticipated to soon be repudiated, discover the overvaluation of assets and the importance of the viability of long term wages from long term jobs supporting any new loans. Their lending is sharply ratcheted down. Macroeconomic money growth - which occurs principally by borrowing against future wages, against asset valuation, and future taxes - then contracts.
The Wilshire's 11/27/22 month Lammert growth fractal since October 2002, captures 15 trillion dollars or so of summation activity at its saturation area reflecting many complex and interactive facets of investment money distribution: ongoing US dollar valuation; US real estate and construction related stocks; US banking and financial stocks which have 'engineered' much of the debt dependent money growth; transportation stocks reflecting the import economic activity of cheaper labor cost associated with oversea manufactured goods and traded for US debt notes backed by US taxes, artificially higher US wages, and interest rate dependent and lending parameter dependent artificially high US real estate valuations; and commodity related stocks such as oil and mining stocks. The Great US Wilshire can be traced back to its primitive origins in 1788-89, 68 or so years after the collapse of its European equity equivalent parents in 1720-21. The US Wilshire family tree evolved a 70 year first fractal growth ending in 1858 and a 149 year second fractal growth composed of two subfractals of 74-75 years each; the first ending in 1932.
The second subfractal has been composed of a 17/33/25 year fractal with the 25 year third fractal composed of 8 and 17 year first and second subfractals. Since 1990, US GDP growth has become increasingly debt dependent. A significant part of the macroeconomic saturation hypothesis related to the very ideal nature of quantum fractal valuation growth (and thereafter decay) of asset classes in macroeconomic system is that the recent 2 and 1/2 decades of relatively precise US composite equity fractal evolution and more recently, the last 11/27/22 months of Wilshire yet more ideal Lammert quantum valuation growth activity since October 2002 - is dependent on the enormous and overwhelming amount of historical debt used to 'grow' the US and world economy. US GDP growth has chiefly been accomplished courtesy of historically imprudent lending standards and borrowing against larger percentages of future earnings and falsely elevated asset valuations.
Asset valuation growth are ordered in simple recurring fractal proportions of x/2-2.5x/2x. As is the nature of fractals, mathematically similar proportional x/2.5x/2x fractal evolutions can be interpolated within larger fractal sequences. This simple fractal ordering is the intrinsic nature of asset valuation growth within the complex feedback macroeconomy controlled by counterregulatory accumulative debt, overproduction and overvaluation of assets, and ongoing wages. Like gravity and its simple laws, this X/2-2.5X/2X mathematical fractal growth is the simple law of the summation complex global macroeconomy. This simple mathematical time relationship for valuation growth is how the complex macroeconomy 'works'. The x/2.5x/2x :: 11/27/22 month Wilshire growth fractal beginning in October 2002 is joined by an interpolated Wilshire fractal sequence starting in March 2003 and composed of a 75/150 week first and second fractal sequence. The first 75 week fractal sequence is composed of a 11/27/22/18 week or x/2.5x/2x/1.6x 4 phase Lammert ideal fractal growth and decay series. Second Fractal saturation valuation curves end in a nonlinear fashion in the terminal area between 2X and 2.5X of length X of the first fractal base. For the Wilshire family tree, there are three first bases of 70 years, 8 years, and 75 weeks ending in 1858, 1990, and August 2005 respectively . All of their respective second fractals are within their second fractal 2X to 2.5X synchronized nonlinear windows.
The component base of the Wilshire is expanded by new issuances on old or new companies. The Wilshire's total valuation is grown by competition buying and investment money flowing into the summation composite. The Wilshire's great and liquid valuation dancing partner is the debt market which is expanded by borrowing - against future wages, against asset price valuation, and against future and ongoing taxes on both wages and asset prices. Borrowing for debt expansion is also dependent on the lending parameters of the lender. The valuation of debt, i.e., the interest on the debt is determined by both the Central Banks' arbitrary setting of lending interest rates and by the market place flow of investment money between all other classes of investments - and the debt market. The paradoxical, albeit very transient, increase in US intermediate and long term interest rates in the last two or so trading weeks - in spite of the anticipated and for some, greater than expected, .5 percent cut in the fed funds rate, is a market driven phenomena where macroeconomic terminal quantum growth of equities, commodities, and currencies - opposite the US dollar - are occurring at the transient expense of rotational money coming from the US intermediate long term debt markets. Soon, just as in 2000 to 2004 and 1929 to 1933, money will rotate into debt instruments as determined by ideal market forces and saturation macroeconomics. US debt instruments will rise in value as interest rates fall and the US dollar will rise in value as residual, and comparative to other European currencies fewer, surviving dollars will be denominated in a disproportionately growing number of liquidated and marketed US assets. The rise in value of the US dollar against other currencies and gold will be proportional to the overproduction and overvaluation of American assets soon populating the asset liquidation market. The relative degree of overvaluation and overproduction of these US assets as opposed to other nation's assets has been primarily a function of the pyramid lending parameters of US financial institutions who have taken the principal of fractional banking and have exponentialized it with the creation of derivatives and collateralization.
What is most interesting at this point of global macroeconomic saturation is the convergence of the recent daily fractal valuation patterns of the US composite commodities, US composite equities, Japanese composite equities, British composite equities, German composite equities, French composite equities, gold, - and most interesting of all - the European, British, and Swiss currencies. All - all of these diverse investment classes are following a similar and regular 14-15/35-37/26 of 28-37 day fractal pattern which started near week 150 of the March 2003 75/150 week fractal series. All of the currencies began a perfect 4 phase Lammert growth pattern of 8/20/16/13 months :: x/2.5x/2x/1.6x followed by a 18-19/45-47/36 of 36-38 week x/2.5x/2x pattern. The recent daily cited currency fractal pattern of 14-15/34-37/26 of 28-36 days joining the precise fractal march of equities and commodities is contained within the terminal portion of the 36-38 week Euro-Pound-Swiss Franc currency third fractal. It is unlikely that there has ever been so near a convergence of daily valuation fractal patterns of so diverse of investment areas: equity, commodity, and european currencies. This historical regularity and similarity of recent daily fractal patterns for so diverse of major investment classes is likely the harbinger of a historical great nonlinear transition of synchronized second fractal terminal areas - occurring at the asset valuation-wage-debt saturation area of the global macroeconomic system.
Posted at 2007-09-19 02:34:43 by theeconomicfractalist
Mutual Fund cash reserves which hit percentage lows in June and July 2007 at 3.5 percent eclipsing the May 1972 low of 3.9 percent likely received another lowering nibble with the Federal Reserve's 0.5 percent action on the Fed Fund rate. The Federal Reserve has little choice and no good choices at this point in global saturation macroeconomics. Just as from October 1929 to 1932 and from March 2000 to 2003 the Federal Reserve's motto: 'es muss etwas geschehen' has been invoked - causing yet more, albeit, end phase terminal malinvestment. It will produce yet greater negative savings as residual money is speculatively and transiently malinvested into equities and commodities. And it will produce a very transient greater inflation squeeze on the paycheck to paycheck debt laden American consumer. There is no action by the central banks that will outmaneuver the inexorable countervailing forces of the debt-wage-asset system of the global macroeconomy. The equity euphoria expected at the probable secondary high for the Wilshire has been further transiently enabled by the Federal Reserve, who but a few years earlier, by its absence of loudly recommending traditional and tighter lending parameters, enabled the disastrous housing pyramid. GM continues its short term terminal fractal growth march of 3/5 of 6-8/4-8 days, which matches a 67-69/168-170/128 of 134-138 day x/2.5x/2x fractal. The dollar is breaking down as expected in a 4/5 of 8-10 fractal matching the reciprocal performance of gold and the Swiss Franc. Cash now safely under the mattress in British and Irish run-on-the-bank households will likely propel gold significantly higher for the next 3 or so trading days. Illustrative is that even with the tens of trillions of extra dollars created in the last 28 years, gold remains below its nominal 1979 17 year second fractal high. 2007 completes the 14th year of the 7/17/14 year Lammert Fractal sequence. As for the Wilshire's monthly fractal growth since October 2002, segmental equity growth began in October 2002 with the 80 percent devalued Tech component showing positive growth at the end of the first 23 week subfractal. The first fractal's second subfractal growth period then evolved for 22 weeks. The Wilshire had a similar although more pronounced sagging pattern between the 23 and 22 week subfractals for the completion the first fractal. This slow fractal growth was based on renewed slow positive money creation via borrowing. This borrowing was accelerated during the Wilshire's second fractal via lower interest rates and real estate crazed lending and borrowing. The Wilshire's third fractal saw a blow-off as money from the cresting and latter declining housing market was focused on equities and commodities. 11 months composed the first fractal. The second fractal had two three-phase growth patterns totalling 27 months and separated in August 2004. The third fractal peaked at 19 July 2007 for a total of 22 months. At it's October 2002 inception, the Wilshire's weekly pattern 'borrowed' 2 weeks from the March 2000 32 month decay fractal for a 46/115-116/92-93 week or x/2.5x/2x ideal Lammert growth fractal. And the monthly fractal series for the Wilshire from the 2002 October low was 11/27/22 for a likewise ideal x/2.5x/2x Lammert growth fractal.
Posted at 2007-09-16 19:29:56 by theeconomicfractalist
The CRB closed at a new high on 12 September 2007. That commodities on the exchange are denominated in US dollars and that so many of them exists in eastern country central banks has helped propel US commodity valuation growth. After a 10/25 day fractal, the US dollar, as it has done recently before on a small time scale second fractal of 18/36 days, broke down further for a down sloping 4/3 of 8-10 day fractal. This matches daily recent growth of the major reciprocal currencies which are at or near the end of their long term multi decade growth fractals. Will the equities have a final surge to match the 19 July 2007 high or has growth concluded? A 14-15/36/21 of 21 to 36 day Wilshire growth fractal with retracement to the 19 July high is possible, with sellers of equities purchasing safer tax-backed debt instruments and buyer of equities investing in the end game of equity valuation growth. GM's recent 5 day activity and gap valuation gains have refocused attention on that benchmark equity.
A 68-69/168-69/126 of 136-138 day x/2.5x/2x fractal is observable starting from the low on 11 April 06. Google which completed a 29/73/58 week fractal the previous week might still have the 58 week contained in a terminal cup of 11-13 weeks. From the August 16 low there are two possible Great Wilshire fractal evolutions. One is a perfect Lammert 4 phase growth and decay fractal of 3/7/6/4 days with a resulting 17 day base and subsequent 5 day progression. The other possibility is a first fractal having a nine day base which would match the CRB pattern from the 16 August low. GM's recent 5 day growth suggests, that before the revolvingg credit collapse and job contraction, there may be enough investment money from ongoing wages, savings, and borrowing in the Macroeconomic system for a terminal 3/3 of 7-8/6-8 maximal growth fractal. This would take GM into the latter part of the 136-138 day ideal 2X third fractal. Further growth for 2-3 weeks might rekindle the euphoria expected before the historical nonlinear collapse. On the other hand, a the 14-15/36/21 of 36 day fractal could be a primary decay fractal.
Posted at 2007-09-11 11:06:00 by theeconomicfractalist
11 September 2007: 14-15/36/18 of 36 days.
Posted at 2007-09-09 00:29:44 by theeconomicfractalist
The Secondary Saturation Area For Commodities and Equities Likely Completed .... In The Great and Unstable Synchronized Windows of 149 Year, 17 Year, and 161 Week Composite Equity Second Fractal Nonlinear Decay .... And ...The Curious Inverse Or Growth Of Decay Perfect Lammert Fractal Series
.............................................................................................................................................8 September 2007............... On 7 September Google completed a 29/73/58 week x/2.5x/2x growth fractal. Commodities and equities did relatively well for the last two weeks, regaining about 60 percent of their last two month's peak to low devolution before falling on 7 September. As predicted in the previous posting the US dollar made its probable low at day 25 of 9-10/24-25 day fractal with a second fractal nonlinear drop on Friday 7 September and a reciprocal rise in gold. The best the US Ten year note could manage was a high of 4.6 percent on Thursday 6 September as smart investment money - from end game selling at the secondary valuation saturation area of equities and commodities - has been generally flowing into US debt instruments. This intraday spike to a high of 4.6 percent likely completed a first and second fractal series of 17-18/44 days for the ten year note which began its monthly third fractal growth commencing on 13 June 07. 1999 began the third fractal of ten year note 3 phase series beginning in late 1983 after an initiating cup of 2 or so years. The 5/10-11/8 of 10 to 11 year growth fractal was initiated by Mr. Volcker who rewarded American savers and punished commodity inflation by raising short term interest rates to the teen level. Mr. Volcker provided the high water interest rate fulcrum which has been used ever since to help lever the debt engine promoting the last 25 years of debt dependent GDP growth. In 1999 the third fractal of the 1983 three phase series and the current 7-8 of 11 year ten year note third fractal growth series began with a 27 month base. The second fractal of this series likely ended at month 64 on 13 June 2007. Long term US interest rates should dramatically decline over the following 24-36 plus months following Japan's pathway in the early 1990's and America's pathway in the early 1930's. This expected fractal trend is consistent with expected asset deflation and negative GDP growth. However, before synchronized second fractal historical nonlinearity, there is yet a small possibility of a 3-4 day extension fractal for equities. Within the last ten day trading days a 2/5/1 of 1 to 4-5 day fractal is observable as a possibility for the great Wilshire with the characteristic nonlinear drop on day 5 of the second fractal, on Friday 7 September at the beginning of the trading day. Such a 2/5/1 of 1 to 4-5 day sequence might complete a 21/53-54/53-54 day x/2.5x/2.5x fractal starting from the low on 14 March 2007 which as of Friday 7 September is on day 51 of the third 51 to 54 day fractal. Conversely the leading world equity market, the composite Chinese equity market, is at day 16 of a 8-9/20-21/16 of 16-20 day terminal Lammert Fractal Growth Series. Nonlinear devaluation could occur at any time as the Shanghai Index is at x/2.5x/2x (8-9/20-21/16 days), or it could occur in 3 to 4 more days to a maximum x/2.5x/2.5x (8-9/20-21/20 days) Lammert saturation growth fractal.
There are interesting quantum mathematical fractal possibilities regarding the optimal equity decay fractal pathway. One series start on the Wilshire's low on 14 March 2007 and is a 12/30/20 day fractal sequence. The Wilshire's third fractal of 20 days is followed by a 9 day valuation rise to a 12/29-30/29-30 day x/2.5x/2.5x fractal. Using the third fractal's 20 day series as the base for the primary decay sequence, a 20/50/16 of 50 day fractal becomes apparent with day 50 an expected low with interim nonlinear devolution. A second ideal scenario again begins with the 14 March Wilshire low and takes its form within the current 21/53-54/51 of 51-54 day x/2.5x/2.5x maximal Lammert saturation growth fractal. The third fractal of this sequence began on 26 or 27 June and had an interim low on 16 August for a possible 36-37 day base. A y/2y/2y decay fractal would represent a 36-37/72-74/72-74 day decay sequence in which the 36 day base would contain the all time Wilshire and CRB combined macroeconomic saturation high valuation on 19 July 2007. The Nikkei, the FTSE, the CAC, and the DAX all share a similar possible 36-38 day base containing their all time composite recent equity highs ( for the NIKKEI, a secondary high to its 1990 40000 mark.) Most interesting and curious is the appearance of an inverse growth fractal, otherwise described as an ideal growth of valuation decay fractal, identifiable for the Wilshire, the FTSE, the CAC, and the DAX as a 6/15/12/9 fractal or a perfect x/2.5x/2x/1.5x Lammert growth and decay fractal series as described in the main page of 'The Economic Fractalist'. The first day of this inverse growth fractal series, ie, growth of decay series, began on 12 July with the first 6 day fractal ending on the 19 July 2007, the all time US combined composite equity and commodity valuation high. The 6/15/12/9 series ended on 4 September. The 38-39 day inverse, or growth of decay, base first fractal series aligns well with the Wilshire's identified possible 20/50/16 of 50 day decay fractal and yet even better with the possible 36/72/72 day quantum decay fractal. Maximum Growth of the Macroeconomy, controlled in a feedback manner by wages and cumulative debt, and by overvaluation and overproduction of assets, operates in a mathematical and quantum ordered fractal manner involving the hourly, daily, weekly, monthly and yearly low to high valuation markers of the equities, commodities, and debt instruments. Decay will likewise occur in an optimal mathematical quantum fractal manner. Anticipate historical synchronized terminal window second fractal commodity and equity nonlinearity.
Posted at 2007-08-25 14:27:38 by theeconomicfractalist
25 August 2007. Available Investment money is distributed optimally between debt instruments, equities, commodities, hard assets such as housing, derivative instruments, and in other countries, new plants and manufacturing industries. Real estate money investment crested in 2005-2006. During the late spring of 07 as the implosion of real estate derivatives and CDO's was occurring, a great money investment rotation began in the US on 13 June 2007. On 13 June 2007 a month before the Wilshire's trillion dollar decline in late July and early August, the US Ten Year Note started a distinct new fractal growth phase and began receiving inflows of terminal available investment money. Commodities and equities were still receiving their fair share, but they were in the advanced and terminal phases of a very mature and aged growth valuation saturation curve. Starting at about 5.32 per cent on 13 June, the US Ten Year Note completed an 18 day first fractal (double counting the first day 13 June, starting on the low valuation and ending on the high valuation), with a valuation high of 5.2 percent concluding its first fractal and beginning its second fractal of growth on 6 July 2007. Friday 24 August 07 was day 36 of the second fractal with 9 more expected days to complete the ideal 2.5x second fractal or 18/36 of 45/36 days. Interest rates for the ten year note will generally trend higher from its current valuation of 4.63 per cent over the next nine trading days reaching 4.75 to 4.9 percent as investment money transiently exits debt instruments and flows into commodities and equities.
The US treasuries are following a 3.5/2 of 7-8/4-5 day fractal growth progression, reaching a high final interest rate in also 9 or so trading days.
The Wilshire's hourly trading fractal pattern from its low on 16 August 2007 appears to be 18/36 of 45/36 hourly units with an expected saturation extension fractal of 3-6 days after its 36 hour third fractal. 9 days will complete a 11/28-29/15 of 24 day declining growth fractal starting on 12/13 June 07 and a 21/54/42 of 51 day growth fractal starting on the low of 14 March 07. A few final days of equity saturation trading is possible after the nine trading days as the flow the investment money begins entering debt instruments driving interest rates lower. The third 36 day fractal of Ten Year Note growth 18/45/36 day (best viewed in TFC commodity charts) will likely take the notes to less than 3.5 percent.
For the next 9 trading days commodity valuations should trend higher.
Next trading week Google, starts week 57 of a third weekly growth fractal of a 29/73/57 of 58 week fractal series for an ideal x/2.5x/2x growth fractal. This will take the equity markets through the expected next 9 trading day time period. Starting 27 August 2007 GM is on week 37 of a 15/38/37 of 38 week, x/2.5x/2.5x maximum growth fractal.
The US dollar is on day 15 of a 9-10/15 of 24 x/2.5x fractal growth series with a low expected on day 24 of the second fractal. Thereafter, the third growth fractal should begin with a significant rise in the value of the US dollar against other currencies. This incipient rise of the dollar will be linked to the final secondary saturation point of the composite commodity-equity peak valuation occuring on 19 July 2007. After the final valuation saturation peak and rapid commodity and equity asset depreciation and with ongoing money destruction through debt repudiation differentially higher in the United States, remaining dollars will have enhanced purchasing power relative to other currencies.
And so the quantum valuation saturation fractal evolution of 2007 does not appear, by this fractal analyst's current interpretation, to parallel 1929. Nevertheless, a 29/73/58 week ideal Google X/2.5X/2x fractal progression to a perfect Lammert saturation area - followed by unexpected nonlinear collapse at the euphoric high or secondary high saturation point- and within the context of ideal terminal rotational investment money distributed to equities, commodities and treasuries in such an expected well defined fractal complementary fashion - together with the synergistically timed fractal evolution of the US dollar - which again can be expected to do well against other fiats in a differentially collapsing, devaluing, real-estate-valuation-dependent US economy - fits well with the hypothesis of a nonstochastic, deterministic, self-limiting, growth and decay quantum system of 'money-debt-asset-wage-interest rate-lending parameter' Saturation Macroeconomics. The behavior of the complex macroeconomic system, dependent on the six countervailing adjectival parameters, appears to be progressing in an ideal and elegantly simple mathematical quantum fractal manner in reaching a maximum asymptotic point along its asset valuation saturation curve. Historical nonlinearity should follow equity and commodity saturation.
Posted at 2007-08-21 12:37:03 by theeconomicfractalist
Tuesday 21 August 2007 concludes a 4/8/8 day growth fractal for the Wilshire. The FTSE, NIKKEI, CAC, DAX, and Indian equities are all following this identical global valuation fractal pattern, indicative of the international linkage of a global macroeconomy. An alternative primary decay fractal whose third fractal is composed of the 4/8/8 fractal series is an 11/23/18 of 18-19 day growth pattern with day 19 of the third fractal correlating to day 8 of the smaller 4/8/8 day series third fractal, 21 August 2007. All major composite equities listed above are following this pattern. 19 days has a fibonacci relationship with the 11 day first fractal base.
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Erratum: ....whose third fractal is composed of the 4/8/8 fractal series is an 11/23/18 of 18 (vice19) day growth pattern with day 18 (vice 19) of the third fractal correlating to day 8 of the smaller 4/8/8 day series third fractal..............
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Erratum: 18 (vice19) days has a ^ terminal ^ fibonacci relationship with the 11 day first fractal base.
Posted at 2007-08-04 19:59:49 by theeconomicfractalist
Over the last few years an attempt has been to validate the
potential science of quantitative fractal analysis of asset valuation saturation curves involving various investment classes, i.e., equities,
commodities, and debt instruments. Growth and decay of asset valuations appear to well conform to relatively well defined quantum fractal patterns. While the various derivative instruments, excessively low interest rates, and lending malpractices contribute to the absolute height of the asset saturation valuation curves and will likewise contribute to the degree of nonlinear devaluation, the length of the major fractal cycles appears to function largely independently of the degree of valuation. Fractal evolution of asset valuations are controlled by the available investment money supply at any given time within the system. That investment money is distributed primarily between debt instruments, equities, commodities, and convertible hard assets. As regulators increase interest rates more money investment is diverted into savings and debt instruments. Tax codes provide preferential treatment for profits earned in equity and housing investments over that earned in savings accounts and offset the benefits of regulatory interest rate increases for savers. Major fractal units of tradeable assets are defined by valuation absolute nodal lows at the yearly and monthly fractal time unit levels. Although subsegmental fractal analysis has identified transient saturation areas, failure to use the yearly and monthly major nodal lows as investment and money supply pivotal turning points has resulted in previous errors in identifying the targeted generational consumer saturation area. Using the shorter fractal patterns in the context of larger fractal patterns the current Wilshire saturation high was predicted. Commencing 12 or 13 June 2007 - with a possible decay fractal sequence of 11-12/27 of 27-29/28-29 days - the FTSE, the Wilshire, the CAC, DAX, Nikkei and BSESN all appear to be following nearly the exact primary daily quantitative decay fractal sequence that the DJIA followed in late summer and autumn of 1929. The 11-12 day fractal base contains week 150 of the Wilshire's major nodal low second fractal with a major nodal low 75 week first fractal base commencing in March 2003. A higher high was made on week 153 and 154 or day 17 on 19 July 2007 of the 11-12 day bases's 27-29 day second fractal. A repetitive nearly identical fractal sequence some 78 years apart and shared by the mature global composite indices would provide further supportive evidence of a macroeconomy defined by quantum fractal law progression The Chinese equity market, gold, the US commodities, and the stronger US stocks provide fractal evidence of a possible secondary top for the US commodity and composite equity's markets. The CRB could actually make a new high in this scenario. The effect of relatively low US interest rates as compared to other national currency interest rates has had a direct inflationary effect on the US dollar, equity valuations, and on record commodity prices. Both long term and short fractal analysis suggest a coming cataclysmic nonlinear devolution in all asset classes with high quality debt instruments ultimately the transient recipients of massive exiting money flow. The scientific hypothesis of nonstochastic quantum fractal analysis, macroeconomic saturation, and ongoing recent prospective predictions can be found by Google'ing 'macroeconomic saturation', 'economic saturation curves', 'theeconomicfractalist', or 'The Economic Fractalist' or 'the blog of gary lammert.' Is it possible to have a nonlinear break like 1987 within the next 2-10 trading days? It is. By referencing a fractal base sequence of 19-21 days which ends on 8 June 2007 and exists in all the aforementioned major global composite indices except the BSESN, massive devaluation nonlinearity could occur within this time frame. But in consideration of the composite picture of ongoing fractal patterns in debt instruments, commodities, the Chinese equity market, and gold market, and key equity stocks, a replay of the 1929 primary decay fractal has a higher probability with multiple short term fractal valuation daily progressions fitting nicely together within these various investment arenas. Just like the equity and commodity blow-off valuations occurring over the last year secondary to real estate investment money being redirected and targeted at those two items, so now is the possiblity of residual hedge fund, derivative, and unused merger money being redirected for a very short time - once again toward the equity and commodity markets. Out of the hardship and distress of the coming global major macroeconomic nonlinear transition, perhaps a new macroeconomic predictive science will emerge with its own equivalent simple mathematical laws of gravity enabling more stable future economic growth, more prudent lending regulations, more judicious use of prevailing interest rates, and more favorable taxation treatment of savings vice the speculative profits found in the churning investment areas of equity, commodity, packaged mortgages, and associated derivative instruments.
Posted at 2007-07-28 00:32:02 by theeconomicfractalist
Haupt das škonomische Fractalist - eine Einleitung bekanntgegeben bei 2005-07-01 13:54: 52 durch gary.lammert Willkommen zur kleinen Nische fŸr die ZufŸhrung der Ursache und der EffektsŠttigung Makroškonomik. Dieser Aufstellungsort Ÿbt die Hypothese aus, die die Natur der MarktschŠtzungen und der škonomischen Zyklen verursachend und quantitativ entzifferbar ist. SchŠtzungen passen sich an fractal zyklische Muster an, die in Verbindung mit den Daten erkannt werden, gedeutet werden kšnnen, die vom makroškonomischen System ausstršmen, und mit kurzfristiger und langfristiger Aussageenergie benutzt werden. Informationen von diesem Aufstellungsort sollen nicht als Investitionrat oder als Investitionwerkzeug analysiert werden. Dieser Aufstellungsort ist wegen der erwarteten Unvermeidlichkeit eines plštzlichen Phase hauptsŠchlichŸberganges konstruiert worden, um an der Zusammenfassung eines gro§artigen 140 Plusjahr an zweiter Stelle fractal Zyklus aufzutreten, der 1858 beginnt. FŸr die Massen tritt dieser Phase Ÿbergang sehr unerwartet und sehr plštzlich auf. Das NŠhern der globalen Makrowirtschaft von solch einem verursachendem und fractal Weltanschauung kann denen, die weitere Schuldverpflichtung betrachten und denen in Position der Formulierung des zukŸnftigen Zinssatzes und der Geld- und Kreditpolitik helfen. Die zyklische Natur des makroškonomischen Systems funktioniert durch KausalitŠt anstatt Wahrscheinlichkeit. SchŠtzungen der Werte werden hauptsŠchlich durch ZinssŠtze - die Kreditkosten gesteuert. Das Senken von NominalzinssŠtzen, unterhalb der steuernden Rate der Wertinflation, fŸhrt zu škonomische MakrolabilitŠt mit ŸbermŠ§iger Geldexpansion durch erhšhtes Borgen. Diese Expansion erzeugt unausgeglichenen VorwŠrtsverbrauch, VerbrauchersŠttigung, Ÿberproduktion und Inflation der Werte und der Verbrauchereinzelteile. Mit der HinzufŸgung der fortwŠhrenden Lšhne der Verbrauchermassen, sind diese oppositional Elemente ausgleichend, und periodische makroškonomische Ungleichheiten willen den korrekten Selbst. Markt-†berbewertungsŠttigung und -zerfallkorrekturen zu den neuen untereren SŠttigungspunkten treten in einer fractal Weise auf. Zyklische Muster kšnnen auf den SchŠtzungdiagrammen bereitwillig gekennzeichnet werden, die innen minuzišs stŸndlich tŠgliches, wšchentliches, Monatszeitschrift und jŠhrliche Ma§einheiten benannt werden. Der Ÿbergangsasymptote der †berbewertungsŠttigung Kurven werden von den Zerfallkurven gefolgt, die MarktschŠtzungen zu gesenkten ZerfallsŠttigung Niveaus holen, in denen intelligente Kunden den Markt wiederbetreten. Minderung der Heisenberg Ungewi§heit Grundregel: 5/12/12 PrimŠrzerfall GR. Tagesfractal, korrelativ bis 3/7-8/2 Tag7-8 des primŠrWilshire Zerfalls fractal und des Korrelats zu einem Wachstum tŠgliches CRB mit 4.5/11/9 Maxima fractal. Fractal Zyklen der SchŠtzung der jŠhrlichen und multi-jŠhrlichen LŠngen basieren auf SŠttigung auf theconsumer Niveau. Menschliche Psychologie ist eine entschieden verlangsamenanzeige und folgt als Ende Effekt der mechanistischen SŠttigung und Zerfallentwicklungen im Markt. Markt contrarians verstehen diese Drehpunkte und nehmen die RichtungsŠnderungen der MŠrkte grŸndeten auf †berbewertung-SŠttigung Bereichen des Marktes asymptotischen oder Zerfall End-pointsŠttigung Eigenschaften und KostenzŠhler intuitiv vorweg, indem sie die Verzšgerung psychologischen Parameter des extremen Optimismus oder des Pessimismus in der Reaktion zu den mechanistischen jeweiligen hohen und tiefsten Punkten erkennen. scheinen der Grad der SchŠtzung und der zyklische Zeitkurs der SchŠtzungentwicklungen, sich an die Strecke nahe anzupassen, die Menge-wie Ma§einheiten und Menge bezogene Fibonacci Zahlen verklemmt ist. WŠhrend der absolute Grad der SchŠtzung durch den absoluten Zinssatz beeinflu§t wird, scheinen die Prozentsatz- oder ProportionatitŠtŠnderungen von SchŠtzungen von Hšhen zu Tiefen und Zeitspannen zu verfallen und Intra-zyklus Knotenpunkte, sich an diese anzupassen sich erstrecken verklemmte nahe Quantenma§einheiten. Die fractal Zeitreihenfolge des idealen Wachstums ist X, 2.5X, 2X, das von einer Zerfallreihenfolge von 1.5-1.6X gefolgt wird. ãXÒ stellt die fractal Ma§einheit der Zeit demoninated in den Minuten, in den Stunden, in den Tagen, in den Wochen, in den Monaten und in den Jahren dar. Die ersten zwei Zyklen schlie§en einen SŠttigung Ÿbergangspunkt- und Zerfallproze§ im Terminalteil der Zyklen ein. Der zweite Zyklus kann becompsed von zwei ungefŠhr gleichen Zeitma§einheiten oder von einer confluent Zeitma§einheit. Ein plštzlicher nichtlinearer Tropfen des letzten 0.5x Zeitabschnitts des 2.5X ist der Stempel eines zweiten Zyklus und kennzeichnet diesen erkennbarsten Zyklus. Nach dem nichtlinearen Abstand Tropfen fŠngt der dritte Zyklus an. Dies hei§t, da§ der zweite Zyklus in der LŠnge von 2x zu 2.5x Ÿberall dauern kann, das Import fŸr den Strom ein gro§artiger fractal Zyklus von 140 Jahr hat, jetzt in seinem 147. Jahr. Der dritte Zyklus 2X ist hauptsŠchlich ein Wachstumzyklus mit einem niedrigeren SŠttigungspunkt- und Zerfallproze§, der von einem hšheren SŠttigungspunkt gefolgt wird. Der letzte Zyklus 1.5-1.6X ist hauptsŠchlich ein Zerfalzyklus, der mit einer mittleren Bereich Wachstumperiode unterbrochen wird. Nahe idealen fractal Zyklen in die kann das Handeln SchŠtzungen vieler GebrauchsgŸter und einzelner Aktien gesehen werden. Die meisten Zyklen sind Karikaturen vom idealen und passen sich an Gompertz mathematische Art SŠttigung und Zerfallkurven an. Frei fŸhlen, die škonomische Fractalist Web site zu besichtigen. G. Lammert Permalink | Anmerkungen
Posted at 2007-07-22 17:07:10 by theeconomicfractalist
On 23 July 2007 the Great Wilshire commences week 155 within a 150-187.5 week time period of second fractal nonlinearity - with a 75 week first fractal base starting in March 2003. This window of nonlinearity exists within a greater 16 2/3-20 year second fractal nonlinearity window with an 8 1/3 year first fractal base starting in1982 and a yet greater140-175 year window of second fractal nonlinearity with a first fractal base starting in 1787-89. The Great Wilshire completed a short term 3/8/8 day:: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum saturation fractal on 20 July 2007. Google completed an 8/20/20 :: x/2.5x/2.5x day maximal saturation fractal series on 19 July with a nonlinear break on 20 July 2007. These are representative small scale perfect extended quantum saturation valuation fractals in the time unit dimension of days and in the quantum growth series of x/2.5x/2.5x. Extended daily fractals, existing within the context of the longer weekly, monthly, etc.saturation fractals, often indicate yet higher valuations. All time scale fractal units represent the collective and integrative activity of the complex macroeconomic system. Second fractal nonlinearity is ultimately caused by the internally countervailing and feedback limitations that characterises this nonstochastic money-debt-asset-wage system. There has been a heavy propensity and bias for this interpreter of quantum fractal analysis to frame the activity and patterns of the ongoing hourly, daily, and weekly fractals within the larger context of the great US Second Fractal starting in 1858. However, the system is completely mechanistic in its evolution, and nonlinearity will occur at a time precisely appropriate to the integration of individual ongoing variables as described in the final posting of the Economic Fractalist. The US Great Second Fractal's 35 year window of nonlinearity started in 1998. The collapse of the Soviet Union with massive new areas entering a market economy and a 1950's transistor breakthrough equivalent, the late 1980's and1990's hardware, software, and companies related to the computer high tech industry, propelled and extended the 2X nonlinearity time beyond 1998. With interest rates, insufficiently high enough to contain speculative growth in this new high tech industry, an over borrowing and over investing phenomena occurred, resulting in PE ratios rivalling the 1720 South Sea Bubble. The 2000 high tech decay fractal pattern with its three phase 32-month mechanistic devolution ending in 2002 matched qualitatively the 1929 32-month decay pattern. Thereafter, the housing mal and over investment industry took root. Fostered by the extreme of low interest rates and coupled with a near complete lapse of regulatory control of the financial lending industry, a ubiqitous investment bubble was created with pyramidal foundations at the tenuous blue collar entry level resulting in false overvaluation ramifications for all US property owners. These two serial malinvestment events, the high tech and housing industry bubbles, have now taken the US macroeconomy into the 9th year of the Great Second Fractal's 35 year window of nonlinearity. During this time Corporate America clearly understood that it was more profitable to import low wage made products and sell them to American consumers rather than domestically produce them. The new Asian continent, subcontinent and Mexican economies, the transportation industry, and the American off-loading dock workers have done well with this arrangement. American industry and manufacturing has not. Exchanged US dollars held by foreign governments have symbiotically been invested in US debt instruments keeping interest rates artificially low. Further growth of the valuation of commodities and equities is now dependent on a growing money supply which in the United States, sans growing manufacturing, is dependent on borrowing at some level. Borrowing and speculation in stocks by private and corporate investors and ongoing borrowing by the US government has replaced the speculative and subprime borrowing via the housing industry, which replaced the earlier speculative borrowing in the high tech industry. How much further can this go on before the point is reached where the US (and world) money supply is actually decreasing? In the US this will roughly occur when the sum of one: residual investment money from consumers' wages offset by both A. inflation (including inflated property taxes) and B. ongoing interest debt - added to two: the collective borrowing for equity and commodity speculation - are sufficiently lessened and offset by ongoing valuation losses within the housing industry, the subprime bond markets, and the dependent derivative markets - to yield a null investment net sum for ongoing valuation support and growth. Has the null investment sum saturation point been reached? Reviewing various composite equity saturation curves for the last 8-10 weeks, an argument could be made that this point has been attained However, there is a mathematical quantitative fractal possibility of yet further growth within the 150-187.5 week second fractal nonlinearity window. For the last 8-10 weeks the FTSE's averaged valuation line at 6600, the DAX's at 7900, the CAC's at 6050, and the SPX's at 1520 have negative and positive valuations area integrals within two percent under and over the given valuation line. Added to this potential narrow bound asymptotic saturation activity, GM has evolved a possible first decay fractal of 5-6/12 of 13-15/13-15 days. This primary decay fractal could be representative of incipient decay for all investments. Against this, the recent daily maximum extensions x/2.5x/2.5x of both Google and the Wilshire suggest further growth. Of note on 23 July 2007 Google is starting week 52 of a 29/73/52 of 58 week potential x/2.5x/2x fractal. GM is starting week 32 of a 15/38/32 of 38 x/2.5x/2.5x fractal. Within the context of these two very different companies with divergent long term future prospects, further fractal deterministic valuation growth is yet possible. Finally gold has conformed to a 21/53/(5/12/10 of 10-12) monthly fractal growth. The third monthly fractal of this series is potentially composed of a 19-20/49/42 of 42-49 x/2.5x/2.5x weekly series. Mathematically the complex system appears to be locked on a unified future saturation point and time.
Posted at 2007-07-06 00:18:16 by theeconomicfractalist
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The Economic Fractalist - An introduction
Posted at 2005-07-01 13:54:52 by gary.lammert Welcome to the small alcove for the advancement of cause and effect saturation macroeconomics. This site pursues the hypothesis that the nature of market valuations and economic cycles is both causal and quantitatively decipherable. Valuations conform to fractal cyclical patterns that can be recognized, interpreted in conjunction with data emanating from the macroeconomic system, and used with short term and long-term predicative power. Information from this site is not intended to be construed as investment advice or as an investment tool. This site has been constructed because of the expected inevitability of a major sudden phase transition to occur at the conclusion of a grand 140 plus-year second fractal cycle starting in 1858. For the masses this phase transition will occur both very unexpectedly and very suddenly. Approaching the global macro economy from such a causal and fractal Weltanschauung may help those considering further debt obligation and those in position of formulating future interest rate and monetary policy. The cyclical nature of the macroeconomic system operates by causality rather than chance. Valuations of assets are controlled chiefly by interest rates - the cost of money. Lowering nominal interest rates, below asset inflation controlling rates, leads to macro economical disequilibria with excessive money expansion through increased borrowing. This expansion engenders unbalanced forward consumption, consumer saturation, overproduction, and inflation of assets and consumer items. With the addition of ongoing wages of the consumer masses, these oppositional elements are countervailing, and periodic macroeconomic imbalances will self correct. Market overvaluation saturation and decay corrections to new lower saturation points occur in a fractal manner. Cyclical patterns can readily be identified on valuation charts denominated in minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly units. The transitional asymptote of overvaluation saturation curves are followed by decay curves which bring market valuations to lowered decay saturation levels where intelligent buyers reenter the market. Valuation fractal cycles of yearly and multi-yearly lengths are based on saturation at theconsumer level. Human psychology is a decidedly lagging indicator and follows as an end effect of the mechanistic saturation and decay evolutions in the market. Market contrarians understand these turning points and anticipate the directional changes of the markets based both on market asymptotic overvaluation saturation areas or decay end-point saturation characteristics and counter intuitively by recognizing the lagging psychological parameters of extreme optimism or pessimism in reaction to the mechanistic respective high and low points. Both the degree of valuation and the cyclical time course of valuation evolutions appear to conform to range bound near quantum-like units and quantum related Fibonacci numbers. While the absolute degree of valuation is influenced by the absolute interest rate, the percentage or proportionality changes of valuations from highs to lows and lengths of time to decay and intra-cycle nodal points appear to conform to these range bound near quantum units. The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X followed by a decay sequence of 1.5-1.6X. 'X' represents the fractal unit of time demoninated in minutes, hours, days, weeks, months, and years. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. The second cycle may becompsed of two roughly equal time units or one confluent time unit. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x, which has import for the current 140 year grand fractal cycle, now in its 147th year. . The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves. Feel free to visit The Economic Fractalist Website. G. Lammert
Posted at 2007-07-04 14:25:59 by theeconomicfractalist
On the 22 June 07 posting a 3-4/8 of 8-10/0-8 day fractal was identified for the Wilshire with the possibility of exceeding the previous Wilshire high. This small daily extension fractal whose terminal portion now rests within the synchronized window of nonlinearity has evolved as a caricatured 4/10/7 of 7-10 day fractal with a lower low on day 3 of the 7-10 day third fractal. Notice that within the larger saturation curve there are smaller time scale extension fractals which have reached within the last one and 1/2 weeks the 2x-2.5x window area (150 to 188 weeks) of large scale 2nd fractal nonlinearity which in turn exists within two unique second fractal subsets of yet larger (longer) monthly and even larger (longer) yearly time scale 2x -2.5x synchronized windows of nonlinearity. The Wilshire's 12/30/30 week X/2.5X/2.5X second subunit beginning in October 2005 of the Wilshire's larger second fractal beginning in August 2004 had a blow-off progression of its third 30 week valuation fractal. This began in July 2006. The 30 week third fractal saturated top exists within a 9/18/10 week fractal progression. Starting on week 30 of this third fractal, a 4/10/10 week x/2.5x/2.5x extension fractal has transpired with the first 4 week fractal down sloping. The 12/30/30 day progression starting on 14 March 07 is contained within the 2nd and 3rd 10 week fractals with day 17 of the third 30 day fractal, the current high on 4 June 2007. The 10th week of the third fractal (4/10/10 week extension fractal) contains 2 July or day 7 of the current 4/10/7 of 7-10 day progression. Both the weekly and currently daily progressions can be viewed as extension fractals which have taken the complex money-debt-valuation system into the synchronized window of long. longer, and even longer term second fractal nonlinearity.
While the composite larger Wilshire has not bested its 4 June 2007 high, the smaller valued Nasdaq supported by Apple's associated latest marketable hardware 2 July valuation burst, has made a new high in gap blow-off fashion beginning at the start of the trading day on 2 July 07. GM is following a similar caricatured 4-5/9-12/5-8 of 8-12 day final fractal. GM is now completing a second fractal subunit of its second fractal: a 15/38/29 of 29-30 week X/2.5X/2X fractal progression. GM's first fractal starting in March 03 matched precisely the Wilshire's low to low 75 week first fractal: 11/27/22/18 weeks or X/2.5X/2X/1.6X, a perfect Lammert fractal progression. GM's second fractal starting in August 2004 was composed of two fractal subunits, the first, a 11/27/22/16 week progression and the second, the heretofore mentioned 15/38/29 of 29-30 week progression (X/2.5X/2X). GM's declining 11/27/22/16 first subunit of the second fractal starting in August 2004 points the way for GM's final destination. GM in so many ways represents a near perfect microcosm of America and the financial picture of America and its citizenry. Analogous to America on smaller scale are GM's hard assets and cash reserves, its enormous debt to asset and cash ratio, its enormous debt to future earning power ratio, its substantial entitlement obligations, and the flat to declining wages of its blue collar workers. These blue collar workers collectively have enormous personnel debt, negative savings, and dwindling prospects in a global low wage dysequilibrium macroeconomy. Much of GM's present artificial wealth is related to its inflated stock valuation which has been falsely levitated by a debt driven, low interest rate driven , and imprudent lending practices driven expanded money supply environment vice improved products and improved global market share. This is directly analogous to the artificial levitation of America's total real estate wealth which has been nonsustainably inflated by the same forces. Both GM and American real estate find themselves under the same bad debt, money supply, and economic saturation and valuation saturation feedback forces that exist in the quantitative time period of second fractal nonlinearity.
Posted at 2007-06-24 03:03:49 by theeconomicfractalist
Starting the week of 25 June 2007, the Wilshire saturation valuation curve will find itself at week 151 of a 151 to 188 week terminal window of a 2X-2.5X second fractal with a 75 week first fractal base starting in March 2003. The Wilshire will also find itself at month 201 of a 200-250 month terminal window of a 2X-2.5X second fractal with a 100 month first fractal base starting in August 1982. The Wilshire, the progeny of earlier canal, railroad, and yet more primitive late 18th century US composite stock equivalents, will find itself at year 149 of a 140-175 year terminal window of a 2X-2.5X second fractal with a first fractal base of about 70 years starting in 1787-89. While 22 June 2007 was a day of devolution for commodities and equities, less than 1 and 1/7 percent of valuation was lost for the composite US equities and even a much smaller percentage amount for the commodities. The day's losses represented only a fractional ripple along the composites' lofty saturation valuation curves. All of the macroeconomy's assets, debt structure, electronic and paper money, and supporting derivatives are interactive, interdependent, and interlocking and serve as the integrated scaffolding that forms the arched support system for the daily valuation curve linear bridge. That curve and thin bridge soars daily above the zero valuation stream meandering far below. The road on the bridge usually occupies a skinny range-bound trading area of less than one percent a day. All of the money support elements, some of which have been exponentialized through creative agreements and fractional relending schemes by the business smart but not holistically wise financial industry, are ultimately grounded in the foundational elements of supply and demand at the consumer level. It is at the consumer level that generational saturation of goods and debt occur.... limited by the saturated macroeconomy's inability to provide the ongoing collective wages needed for further economic expansion. It is in this interrelative and negative feedback money, asset, debt, and wage complex system that mathematical quantum nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics operates according to simple time unit dependent fractal functions, supporting a single saturation valuation high point along the asset valuation curve, thereafter followed by an interdependent, causal, and necessary positive feedback devolution. Devolution leads to more devolution as loans representing bad debts on overvalued assets or risk instruments are defaulted, and these unsupported assets or risks are dumped onto an oversupplied market or respectively have their necessary image removed from one of a reflective series of multiplying mirrors. Losing money, lenders tighten their lending practices. Losing money, speculators, investors, and consumer retrench and curtail borrowing. Implosion occurs until a new bottom baseline equilibrium of - wages, supply, and demand - forms the foundation for the next credit cycle. The 140-175 year longer window and the 200-250 month long window still offer a possibility of further growth after the 151-188 week devolution. The current enormous debt and entitlement obligations of the US are balanced by the potential asset wealth represented by the country's total real estate valuation - which is protected by its other perhaps more important asset, the hardware and organization of its superpower military. After the coming devolution can a reoccurence of a less than 1 percent Fed Fund rate and similar LIBOR rate of less than 1.25 percent jump start the economy for yet around round of consumer and speculator credit - originating, of necessity, in the real estate arena? A 0.5 percent lending rate negotiated into a turnover adjustable rate might provide near instantaneous relief for the 1-1.5 trillion dollars of nontraditional loans coming due over the next 18 months. As well it would stabilize and reinflate the housing market, reawakening second mortgage borrowing for the 90 percent of homeowners who have owned their home for more than four years. Lowering the Fed Funds rate to a sub one percent rate will also cause another cycle of commodity inflation impacting significantly those with median wages and less. Such a reinflation scenario would be potentially consistent with ongoing commodity fractal patterns. The CRB is potentially at month 48 of a 22/48 of 55 month second fractal progression (also in a 44-55 month second fractal terminal window) with a 31 month or so first fractal base. The expected low of the CRB would match the expected low of the composite Wilshire within a few months. The currency markets which are following elegant Lammert fractal patterns would fit well into such a releveraged terminal inflationary scenario prior to the cohort retirement of baby boomers. While the Wilshire could breakdown at anytime with unprecedented nonlinearity, the terminal window of the shortest synchronized second fractal is 37.5 weeks wide - again, roughly matching the 7 months remaining for the CRB. On the other hand supporting the construct of triple synchronized second fractal devolution, the monthly CRB fractal pattern exists within a larger long term fractal CRB pattern of 7/17/14 years.
Posted at 2007-06-22 12:36:27 by theeconomicfractalist
Investment money flowing into commodities on 18 June outdid the composite US Wilshire; the CRB reached a more recent new high than its investment equity assset big brother. Three trading days later at the close on 21 June 2007 Gold, Walmart, the CRB, and the Wilshire all concluded day 30 of a potential maximal third fractal in a 12/30/30 :: x/2.5x/2.5x day fractal progression. The Wilshire has an incipient small scale new daily fractal progression within the terminal portion of the third 30 day fractal: a 3-4/8 of 8-10/0-8 day fractal. This small fractal offers hope for further valuation growth. But major breakdowns can occur during a second fractal progression - witness 1929. Will the Wilshire breakdown occur on 22 June or proceed with further valuation growth? New Century at 33.5 red cents is worth 99 percent less than one year ago - and ironically and fittingly - infinitely more than what it will be worth in one year. Even in its smallness it too is following an ideal Lammert fractal progression- at 21 June day: day 26 of a third fractal in a (13)14/32/26 x/2.5x/2x declining growth fractal series.
Posted at 2007-06-16 17:00:17 by theeconomicfractalist
All of the major US composite equities had a minutely nonlinear blow-off gap upwards at the beginning of the trading day on 15 June 2007. The NASDAQ made a new high, suggestive of enough investment money in the complex system of yet future higher highs. This probability awaits a new high confirmation by the US summation equity index, the Great Wilshire. Disenchanted investors from the housing bubble have redirected their terminal investment money into the equities and commodities, resulting in a patterned blow-off over the last 48 weeks. Gold and gold stocks likely provide the clearest terminal picture of the real quantity of available investment money supporting asset classes. The daily count at the close on 15 June 2007 for XAU was 33/78/66 days or x/2-2.5x/2x with an exact peak at day 66 of the second fractal and a characteristic nonlinear gap between days 66 and 78. Short term treasuries (IRX) are in the terminal portion, 2x to 2.5x, of a second fractal series and have broken down resulting in lower interest rates as was fractally expected and prognosicated in previous postings after the 30/60 day x/2x fractal series. Long term interest rates TNX and TYX continued their uninversion with respect to IRX - following a 4/8/6 followed by a 3/6-7/5-6 day fractal growth series. This growth (higher interest rates) is near the terminal conclusion of the long term monthly fractal growth series beginning in September/October 2002 with a 10/25/25 monthly progression or X/2.5X/2.