Posted at 2006-12-24 14:37:03 by theeconomicfractalist
NONSTOCHASTIC SATURATION MACROECONOMICS That the money supply equity valuation marker for the global macroeconomy, the 14 trillion dollar Wilshire, travels in a precise and simple mathematical fractal pattern to reach a necessary saturation area and an apogee point, predetermined by the causal, evolving, and dynamic interaction of its internal components of debt, (over)supply, (over)consumption, and wages is a tautological mathematical certainty. The growth pattern described in the Main Page of the Economic Fractalist has occurred repetitively throughout the Wilshire's 3 and 3/4 year deterministic march in its anthropomorphic 'attempt' to match its nominal noninflation- adjusted March 2000 summit. Supplied by terminal profit from the crumbling housing bubble with terminal investment money rotating into the commodity and equity markets, the Wilshire's March 2000 peak remains... unbested. The objective evidence for the x/2.5x/2x and x/2.5x/2.5x fractal growth patterns described in the Main page of the Economic Fractalist and its final posting, respectively, has a simplistic and eloquent res ipsa loquitor quality. It is the recently weaker component of the Wilshire 5000, the NASDAQ , that provides the clearest picture. 22 November 2006, the theoretical ideal high for a 159/398/398 x/2.5x/2.5x fractal ... was the NASDAQ's closing high. 15 December which completed a perfect 119/297/297 x/2.5x/2.5x fractal was the NASDAQ's integrative high(and the Wilshire's integrative high). 20 December 2006 completed a 55/137/110 x/2.5x/2x fractal starting in October 2005 with the second 137 day fractal off by only 1/2 a day from its ideal nodal low.
There is one other dominent weekly fractal pattern that is both simple, understandable with respect to ongoing contempory money growth, and totally consistent with the EF Main Page hypothesis three phase growth pattern of x/2-2.5x/2x. The first fractal is a 44 week 'bent' fractal starting in the 'traditiona'l low cycle month area of October 2002. The fractal is bent and composed of two fract sequences: a 23 week initial sequence and a 22 week follow -on second sequence. The first 23 week component was dominated by the ongoing liquidation and decay portion of the 2000 equities bubble offset by competing money supply growth stimulated by historically low and dropping fed funds rates and short term interest rates. At the beginning of the second 22 week in March 2003 growth period liquidation and selling saturation ended overcome by growth of money supply and GDP expansion through borrowing with lending conditions simply too good to save. The second fractal to this 44 week base was a 90-91 week fractal slightly longer than 2x of the first base x made of a 16/38-39/38-39 week subfractal growth sequence. Nonlinear drops occurred at the end of second weekly period of 38-39 weeks in August 2004, which was the second subfractal of the 16 week base. Another nonlinear drop occurred in April 2005 near week 90-91 which was the second primary fractal for the 44 week primary base. The third fractal of the primary base is composed of a 25-26/63 week series(x/2.5x) for a total of 87-88 0f 88 weeks making the classic primary fractal sequence: 44/90-91/88 weeks. Nonlinear drops were noted in June and July 2006 which reflected the end of a second subfractal of 30 weeks 2x with a 12 week first base x subfractal starting in October 2005. The 87-88 week third primary fractal is made of a two component subfractal series of x/2.5x : 25-26/(12/30/23 of 23-24) weeks. In summary, the secondary growth period of the last 3 and 3/4 years to the Wilshire's March 2000 high is made of a three phase 44/90-91/88 weekly fractal x/2-2.5x/2x series dating from October 2002 and is composed of the following subcomponent weekly subfractal sequences: {(23/22)//(16/38-39/38-39)//(25-26)/(12/30/23 of 23-24)}.
The nonlinear drops in August 2004, April 2005, and June and July 2006 are all affiliated with terminal portions of lower order second fractals. Three other second fractals: one very short term and two very long term come into view. The short term second fractal has a base of 39 days and is on, as of 22 December 2006, day 74 of an ideal 78 day series. This would complete a 112 day series of a 56/140/112 with 4 days of the second 140 day fractal 'rolled' into the third fractal. There is a like symmetry of a nondominant 56 day fractal starting in August 2004 with a 56/140/112 series. From 1932 a 17/33/24 year three phase growth fractal has occurred with the 24 year extended third subfractal composed of two subunits of 8 and 16 years. The 16 year mark of the second subfractal lies just beyond 2x of the 8 year first base. A yet even longer epic second fractal has its first base at the beginning of United States history: 1787-88. The first fractal is composed of 70-71 years and ends in 1858. The second is composed of two subunits each currently 74 years long from low to low 1858-1932 and from low to high 1932 to 2006... much like the 297 day low to low and low to high twin fractals starting from the nodal low in August 2004 and ending on 15 December 2006. The nature of fractals is to repeat themselves at lower order scales. What type of nonlinear ending will these two great colossal second fractals have and how does the anticipated non linearity allign with the horrific debt, oversupply, and overconsumption imbalances that now represents the American economy?
Posted at 2006-12-22 03:23:43 by theeconomicfractalist
NONSTOCHASTIC SATURATION MACROECONOMICS
That the money supply equity valuation marker for the global macroeconomy, the 14 trillion dollar Wilshire, travels in a precise and simple mathematical fractal pattern to reach a necessary saturation area and an apogee point, predetermined by the causal, evolving, and dynamic interaction of its internal components of debt, (over)supply, (over)consumption, and wages is a tautological mathematical certainty. The growth pattern described in the Main Page of the Economic Fractalist has occurred repetitively throughout the Wilshire's 3 and 3/4 year deterministic march in its anthropomorphic 'attempt' to match its nominal noninflation- adjusted March 2000 summit.
Supplied by terminal profit from the crumbling housing bubble with terminal investment money rotating into the commodity and equity markets, the Wilshire's March 2000 peak remains... unbested.
The objective evidence for the x/2.5x/2x and x/2.5x/2.5x fractal growth patterns described in the Main page of the Economic Fractalist and its final posting, respectively, has a simplistic and eloquent res ipsa loquitor quality.
It is the recently weaker component of the Wilshire 5000, the NASDAQ , that provides the clearest picture. 22 November 2006, the theoretical ideal high for a 159/398/398 x/2.5x/2.5x fractal ... was the NASDAQ's integrative high. 15 December which completed a perfect 119/297/297 x/2.5x/2.5x fractal was the NASDAQ's secondary integrative high(and the Wilshire's integrative high). 20 December 2006 completed a 55/137/110 x/2.5x/2x fractal starting in October 2005 with the second 137 day fractal off by only 1/2 a day from its ideal nodal low.
The nonlinear drops in August 2004, April 2005, and June and July 2006 are all affiliated with terminal portions of lower order second fractals. Three other second fractals: one very short term and two very long term come into view. The short term second fractal has a base of 39 days and is on, as of 22 December 2006, day 74 of an ideal 78 day series. This would complete a 112 day series of a 56/140/112 with 4 days of the second 140 day fractal 'rolled' into the third fractal. There is a like symmetry of a nondominant 56 day fractal starting in August 2004 with a 56/140/112 series. From 1932 a 17/33/24 year three phase growth fractal has occurred with the 24 year extended third subfractal composed of two subunits of 8 and 16 years. The 16 year mark of the second subfractal lies just beyond 2x of the 8 year first base. A yet even longer epic second fractal has its first base at the beginning of United States history: 1787-88. The first fractal is composed of 71-72 years and ends in 1858. The second is composed of two subunits each currently 74 years long from low to low 1858-1932 and from low to high 1932 to 2006... much like the 297 day low to low and low to high twin fractals starting from the nodal low in August 2004 and ending on 15 December 2006. The nature of fractals is to repeat themselves at lower order scales. What type of nonlinear ending will these two great colossal second fractals have and how does the anticipated non linearity allign with the horrific debt, oversupply, and overconsumption imbalances that now represents the American economy?
Posted at 2006-12-17 15:46:30 by theeconomicfractalist
From the August 2004 low, two matching 297 day fractals were completed on Friday 15 December 2006:
First Fractal Series: 52/130/117 days (low to low).
Second Fractal Series: 56/136/107 days (low to high).
GM's decay fractal series appears to be a 9/17 of'22/22 day fractal series.
The matching Wilshire would be a 8+/15 of 21/21 day fractal series.
22 November 2006, the idealized long term high x/2.5x/2.5x 159/398/398 days was the high of the first 8+ day fractal series with a second caricaturized fractal series of 4/8/4 of 4-8 series. December 15 was the 4th day in the third fractal and the 107th day of the 55/137/107 of 110 idealized x/2.5x/2x series starting in October 2005. December 15 may well be the final averaged secodary high for the Wilshire.
Interesting from a fractal perspective is that from the low to low and low to high 297/297 day series dating from the low in August 2004 matches the fractal profile of the 74/74 year fractal profile from 1858 to 1932 and from 1932 to 2006.
The reasonability of a nonlinear asset collapse at this point in macroeconomic history exactly matches the historical debt driven overconsumption, over supply, and international wage fragility dysequilibria that characterizes the terminal saturation area.
Posted at 2006-12-15 12:35:58 by theeconomicfractalist
The composite equity markets travel in a deterministic ideal mathematical fashion dependent upon money supply growth and money available for investment. 22 November 2006 was the ideal long term secondary top for the Wilshire dating from the lows in early 2003 with a 159/397-398/397-398 x/2.5x/2.5x maximum growth fractal.
There is a growth fractal of a smaller order that defines the more comtemporary and final integral(amount under the curve) money supply over a shorter period, consistent with investment money diverted away from the oversupplied, overtaxed, and deterioriating real estate market and into the equity, commodity and debt markets. November 22 is contained within a 9-10 day base for a daily extension second fractal which will complete a 55-56/137-139/110-112 day fractal growth series starting in October 2005.
The minutely gaps in the Wilshire speak to a final blow-off process with a 4/9/4 of 7-9 day final fractal sequence.
For GM the leading weak indicator, the final fractal decay process is likely 9-10/16 of 22-25/25.
Posted at 2006-12-12 12:20:11 by theeconomicfractalist
Distribution Days and Saturation Reiteration Extension Series Ð Of a Small É and yet Smaller Time scale.
Never before has the world experienced such a dysequilibrium of producers and consumers, of savers and debtors, and of entitlement promises and inability to keep them. Never before has a leading economy been so heavily based on services, debt creation industries, and financial transaction trading.
22 November 2006 was the ideal secondary top for the Wilshire 5000,
secondary to its all time high in March 2000. Six and ? quarters
years later propelled by the greatest unit time debt creation in world
history, the world dominant and composite US equity Wilshire index has
yet to best its 2000 summit.
For the Wilshire 22 November 2006 was the peak day in the second
fractal of a 3/7/7 (x/2.5x/2.5x) day extension fractal series.
The extension series was heralded by the Wilshire's minutely blow-off
to a new high on 14 November 2006. The last five trading days have
shown a smaller time order reiteration fractal extension series
initiated before the apogee portion of this extension saturation
series which occurred on the 7th day of the third fractal. The 7th day
has now been incorporated into a second fractal of the smaller time
order extension series.
GM perhaps shows the way. GM appears to be in a breakdown fractal
series of 7/12 of 17/17 days after reaching its apogee area of
28-29/70-73/56-58 days.
The ten year notes and thirty year bonds have completed a 23/58/46
day fractal on 8 December 2006. Money earned from the sell of equities
over the last several weeks has been entering the US debt market.
Like October 1998 and March 2003, US long term interest rates will soon
plummet to a low lower than 2003.
The CRB and precious metals are up against the terminal portion of a
6+/16/16 and 7/17/14 year fractal series, respectively.
The CRB is near a second fractal monthly limit with
a smaller 21-22/42-43 monthly series.
The individual US dollar while one of many fiat currencies is the fiat
currency backed by a superpower military and substantial nuclear
arsenal. Because of the overbuilding and oversupply of US housing
assets it will soon be able to buy substantially more hard assets per
unit dollar. Will its buying power collapse or will it grow relative
to other international currencies?
Posted at 2006-11-18 16:36:50 by theeconomicfractalist
The Quantum Fractal Hypothesis, Theory, and Laws of Saturation Macroeconomics. Science: ' an operating process that looks for patterns and organizes them as theories or laws .....' The real science of Quantum Fractal Saturation Macroeconomics is defined by composite asset valuation saturation curves. The valuation saturation curves are organized in a precise and elegant mathematical repetitive fractal order intrinsic to and optimally self-assembled by the causal self-balancing oppositional major elements of the nonstochastic macroeconomic universe. This new paradigm view of the macroeconomy may provide monetarists, macroeconomists, and national banking reserve and regulatory agencies a new framework in assessing and controlling macroeconomic dysequilibria incurred by the major money expansion parameters of interest rate policy, lending policy, governmental debt, and perhaps the investment asset area of equity classes. The latter of these elements consumes much, adds little to the real economy, and is ultimately a source of amplified instability and devolution near the end of great credit cycles. Malinvestment in equity paper assets - rather than facilitated investment in savings, innovative or improved domestic products and services, national infrastructure, and domestic factories - ultimately subtracts from the available creative investment money that produces sustaining and linchpin domestic wages. Imprudent policies and practices involving the aforementioned elements leads to overvaluation, overproduction, over supply, over borrowing, and malinvestment. With the rate limiting factors of one: wages of the masses which are both dependent on and supporting of the whole system and two: ongoing accumulating debt load which ultimately limits and contains dynamic and useful consumption, the excesses created by the money expansion elements necessarily causes or leads to a final asymptotic saturation state where money growth is exactly balanced by asset devolution, debt default, and money contraction. After asymptotic saturation,interconnected and progressive asset deflationary collapse rapidly occurs proportional to the accumulative preceding excesses in debt, over supply, and money expansion. It may be that paper equities representing an amplified derivative of companys' profits, assets, potential earning powers, and debt loads - now considered as an asset class with useful economic purpose - are the most illusive and destructive of all malinvestment areas, unnecessarily amplifying money destruction during the asset deflationary phase. The empirically derived mathematical law for maximal quantum fractal growth is: X/2.5X/2.5X :: 159/398/398. 24 November 2006 is the 398th trading day of the ideal 2.5 X third fractal maximum growth. 24 November 2006 is the final Ideal Maximum Saturation Day for the 14 trilliondollar Composite Wilshire - (secondary to its March 2000 all time high.) Kindly visit: The Economic Fractalist. Lammert.....Addendum and correction: Veteran's day, while a holiday for this veteran, was not a trading holiday. The 398th day for the Wilshire is 22 November 2006. The 16th day of the concurrent and final 8/20/16 day growth fractals for the ten year note, 30 year bond, and CRB is 22 Novembr 2006. The 58th day of the 29/73/58 day fractal for GM is 22 November 2006. 22 November 2006 is the ideal final saturation day for the Wilshire secondary to its March 2000 alltime high.
Lammert.
Posted at 2006-11-04 22:40:21 by theeconomicfractalist
The Quantum Fractal Hypothesis, Theory, and Laws of Saturation
Macroeconomics.
Science: ' an operating process that looks for patterns and
organizes them as theories or laws .....'
The real science of Quantum Fractal Saturation Macroeconomics is defined by composite asset valuation saturation curves. The valuation saturation curves are organized in a precise and elegant mathematical repetitive fractal order intrinsic to and optimally self-assembled by the causal self-balancing oppositional major elements of the nonstochastic macroeconomic universe.
This new paradigm view of the macroeconomy may provide monetarists, macroeconomists, and national banking reserve and regulatory agencies a new framework in assessing and controlling macroeconomic dysequilibria incurred by the major money expansion parameters of interest rate policy, lending policy, governmental debt, and perhaps the investment asset area of equity classes. The latter of these elements consumes much, adds little to the real economy, and is ultimately a source of amplified instability and devolution near the end of great credit cycles.
Malinvestment in equity paper assets - rather than facilitated investment in savings, innovative or improved domestic products and services, national infrastructure, and domestic factories - ultimately subtracts from the available creative investment money that produces sustaining and linchpin domestic wages.
Imprudent policies and practices involving the aforementioned elements leads to overvaluation, overproduction, over supply, over borrowing, and malinvestment. With the rate limiting factors of one: wages of the masses which are both dependent on and supporting of the whole system and two: ongoing accumulating debt load which ultimately limits and contains dynamic and useful consumption, the excesses created by the money expansion elements necessarily causes or leads to a final asymptotic saturation state where money growth is exactly balanced by asset devolution, debt default, and money contraction.
After asymptotic saturation,interconnected and progressive asset deflationary collapse rapidly occurs proportional to the accumulative preceding excesses in debt, over supply, and money expansion. It may be that paper equities representing an amplified derivative of companys' profits, assets, potential earning powers, and debt loads - now considered as an asset class with useful economic purpose - are the most illusive and destructive of all malinvestment areas, unnecessarily amplifying money destruction during the asset deflationary phase.
The empirically derived mathematical law for maximal quantum fractal growth is:
X/2.5X/2.5X :: 159/398/398.
24 November 2006 is the 398th trading day of the ideal 2.5 X third fractal maximum growth.
24 November 2006 is the final Ideal Maximum Saturation Day for the 14 trilliondollar Composite Wilshire - (secondary to its March 2000 all time high.)
Kindly visit: The Economic Fractalist. Lammert