Posted at 2008-09-20 15:45:52 by lammertdecayfractals
The 150 Year Phase Transition Second Fractal Decay Sequence: 9/22/22 days with 2 Days Shared
Over the last year the world's sovereign treasuries and world central banks have injected historically GNP-percentage-wise unprecedented liquidity into the world's financial system to provide daily and weekly cash flow for the composite financial industry and prevent systemic lock-up and collapse of the credit system. With the direct intervention into the 50 year rules of the market by the UK and US securities exchanges, a slight distortion of the the composite equities' absolute daily values have occurred over the last two days with the Wilshire gaining about 300 billion dollars in worth more than its expected daily value on 19 September 2008. The nonlinear phase transition representing the terminal portion of the US Composite equity 150 Year second fractal phase transition appears to be a 9/22/22 day fractal decay sequence with 2 days shared between the second and third decay fractals. This will place the final intermediate major low two days prior to the earlier predicted 4 November 2008 low. In this scenario 7 October 2008 would represent the final major lower high. The 2-3 trading days immediately preceding 7 October 2008 will likely represent trillion dollar reversal hourly valuation fractal patterns for the great Wilshire. After a considerable period of economic contraction and social disarray lasting years, the seed corn of US 100,000 dollar insured deposits could represent a basis for long term economic growth, albeit initially at a much reduced real rate.
Posted at 2008-09-14 19:42:00 by lammertdecayfractals
As has been described in The Economic Fractalist, nonlinear breaks or gaps to lower valuations are the hallmarks of second fractal conclusions. For the United States' composite Wilshire, the progeny of earlier primitive 1787 New York and Boston stocks and later canal, and later yet, railroad stocks, a great 150 year US second fractal credit cycle starting in 1858 reached its first sub fractal apogee in 1929 and reached its second sub fractal apogee on 11 October 2007. These apogees represent peak areas of the money supply, generated by credit expansion through leveraged borrowing. In 1929 it was the forward buying of new washing machines, automobiles, and radios on credit and buying stocks on ten per cent margin. In 2007 it was the colossal unchecked credit expansion via leveraged housing prices with capital via the orchestration of pooled investors; it was the leveraged credit expansion based on artificially doubled and tripled housing valuations divorced from the reality of wages; and it was the shadowy credit expansion via speculative derivatives to the nth degree facilitated by the investment lending industry and their sophisticated computer software. The last six trading days have produced a quantum trading fractal growth pattern to a highly probable final saturation lower high for the Wilshire: with a first fractal of 31-32 15-minute units. This 32 unit first fractal is composed of a 5/13/10/7 15-minute unit x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal evolution. The second fractal is about 77 15-minute units in length with the readily identifiable nonlinear collapse at its terminal portion. The third fractal about 52-53 15-minute units in length or about 1.6 times the first fractal length. Fibonacci relationships come into play for third growth fractals under the umbrella of major larger scale decay periods and likewise near the terminal portions of final asymptotic decay areas. Accelerated decay in the larger scale fractal pattern is immediately ahead for the great Wilshire. The time area for the US 150 year credit cycle and its terminal second fractal nonlinearity is at hand.
Posted at 2008-09-06 13:37:21 by lammertdecayfractals
Predictable patterns are the hallmarks of a science. The 150 year saturation nominal valuation interday high for the world's current largest composite equity market, the Wilshire, 11 October 2007 was predicted to the day. Can the exact major, albeit not final, valuation interday low for this composite index be likewise predicted to a day? By the simple quantum fractal decay patterns of nonstochastic Saturation Macroeconomics - 4 November 2008 is that day.
Posted at 2008-09-01 12:20:23 by lammertdecayfractals
http://www.economicfractalist.com/blog/
Posted at 2008-07-06 00:39:49 by lammertdecayfractals
The Wilshire closed at 12815.47 on 3 July 2008, near its 22 month lows. Composite equity valuation decay will follow a quantum fractal decay pattern. What is that fractal pattern? Will the current fractal decay pattern time frame and final low be mathematically consistent with the larger growth and decay pattern starting in October 2002? Will the US 150 year composite equity second fractal's terminal nonlinear area be incorporated within a larger nearly perfect quantum fractal pattern whose evolution and valuation saturation limits intuitively is casually determined by systemic unpayable massive debt? This historical debt evolved by unregulated credit expansion, financial engineering, and uncompetitive interest rates and taxed savings accounts and has resulted in oversupply, over ownership, over valuation, and gross and growing dysequilibrium between the jobs and wages needed in the real economy and the ongoing capacity to service the excessive amount of facilitated debt. The global macroeconomy composite equity valuation well represented by the Wilshire is now evolving under such apparent and growing dysequilibrium conditions and is within the terminal devaluation area were debt and entitlements wlll undergo synchronized default. The October 2002 x/2.5x/2x/1.5x ideal quantum fractal progression is a 11/27/22/13 of 17-18 month evolution and a 46/115/92/ 51 of 69 week evolution. The 92nd week of the third fractal contained the 19 July 2007 high and a reflexive 20/50/40 day fractal yielded the predicted 11 October 2007 interday nominal all time Wilshire high. Is first decay base 13 weeks vice 23 weeks? This fractal decay base would generate a decay sequence of 13/32-33/32-33 weeks vice the 23/48/48-50 week sequence...In this mathematical construct the second decay fractal could be composed of a 24 week and a 9 week fractal with a low at the end of the 9 week fractal substantially higher than expected because of massive and historical federal reserve intervention with total rate cuts of over 2 percent for the January - March 08 time period with contemporary financial guarantees involving the collapse of the fifth largest US investment agency. This short 9 week fractal serves as a potential smaller interpolated base fractal for a final 9/17-18/17-18 week decay fractal series. The week of 7-11 July 08 will likely have a substantial nonlinear movement with the Wilshire on 4 July 08 at the 77th day of a 38-39/77 of 78 days x/2x-2.5x series. The 38-39 day first fractal base starts on 22-23 January 08 and ends on 17 March 08 and composes the short 9 week base. The 2x end of second fractal at day 77 of 78 is near the low valuation level of the first fractal with decay nonlinearity expected between 2x and 2.5x or between day 78 and day 95. With the deteriorating second fractal valuation level, nonlinearity is expected in the early range of the 78 to 95 day 2x to 2.5x time window. 17-18 additional weeks of a third decay fractal 9/17-18/17-18 weeks would take the decay pattern to a low consistent with the terminal portion of the larger 46/115/92/51 of 69 week fractal progression starting in October 2002 and provide strong support of an operative self limiting mathematical quantum formula defining the limits and governing the complex macroeconomic system. The valuation devolution within the final third fractal of 17-18 weeks would reflect a necessary massive repudiation of debt and entitlement payments in the global debt expansion system which has fostered asset oversupply and overvaluation and has caused a facade of GDP growth. GM is likely to go the way of New Century and Delta during this next 18 week time period, with a final fractal pattern of 34/69/34 weeks, a fractal pattern elegantly similar to the pattern composing its first 34 week fractal a 9/18/9 week pattern. Fractally interesting, gold as a marker for commodity speculation has a potential 11/28/10 pf 28 week decay fractal which would match the expected composite equity low. On a daily basis as of 4 July gold and gold stocks are following a final 9/23/16 of potentially 18 day growth fractal. How low denominated in US dollars will the old yellow relic fall in the next 18 weeks supported by a plummeting number of surviving dollars? The devolution of equity and commodity valuations within the 18 weeks will likely be the greatest percentage drop the world has ever experienced.
Posted at 2008-05-24 11:25:54 by lammertdecayfractals
While 11 October 2007 was the absolute nominal high - and the predicted high by quantum fractal analysis - at 15938.99 for the Wilshire, the Wilshire's integral weekly averaged high occurred in the 23 week fractal containing the 22nd month of the third fractal of a 11/27/22 month fractal sequence beginning in October 2002 and containing 19 July 2007, the third fractal's 22nd month daily nominal high. A reflexive 20/50/40 day x/2.5x/2x fractal resulted in the 11 October 2007 40th day high and third fractal's daily high. It is this 23 week 3.5/8/6/5 :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x fractal series that is the likely base for the weekly and monthly decay fractal series to follow. A distortion of the decay sequence - beneficial for the short term to the masses - has likely occurred by the historical world central bank intervention providing an equivalent of more than a trillion US dollar's worth of short term revolving credit to underwater financial institutions and preventing for the short term a cataclysmic global macroeconomic credit lock-up and collapse. As well with regards to the US central bank, the lowering the Fed funds interbank interest rates has had some effect on US treasury rates more closely approximating the US composite equities' average percentage dividend returns and preventing for the short term an even more massive egress of investment money from equities into treasuries. Indeed with the contraction of the real economy and with equity PE ratio's becoming progressively more skewed relative to corporations ongoing profits in that contracting real economy , an interest rate dependent facilitated malinvestment of a type is now occurring in the equity markets. All the macroeconomy's listed primary elements in the final posting of The Economic Fractalist are integratively countervailing and self limiting and asset devolution will come into agreement with ongoing composite debt resolution and with the reality of the ongoing primarily private, verses governmental, wage earner macroeconomy. This real economy has enormous evolving stressors: decreasing real estate net worth, increasing inflation of all consumer necessities, increasing nominal debt and total/(net worth and ongoing wages) percentage debt, credit tightening, and contracting jobs relating to the real estate, financial, insurance, leisure, and durable household products industries. Equity and commodity asset valuations will come into alignment with the reality of this constrained and contracting real consumer economy. These macroeconomic forces are inexorable, deterministic, necessary, and will cause asset devolution to occur in an identifiable quantum decay fractal pattern. The question is this: will this devolution occur in a x/2x/2x decay pattern or in a x/2.5x/2.5x decay pattern, the latter which characterized both the 1929 and the 2000 equity decay process both resulting in a devolution of about 32 months from valuation highs to lows. With a base of 23 weeks or 6 months, a x/2x/2x decay pattern would be equivalent to a 23/46-50/46-50 weekly or a 6/12-13/12-13 monthly decay fractal . A x/2.5x/2.5x decay pattern would result in a 23/58-60/58-60 weekly or in a 6/15/15 monthly decay fractal. Could the trillion dollar equivalent central bank credit support intervention and the lowering of interest rates have converted a quantum decay pattern of x/2x/2x into a quantum decay pattern of x/2.5x/2.5x? The Nikkei is nearing an ideal lower top of a long three phase deteriorating growth fractal since its first devaluation phase in 1989-1990 with a 35-36/ 88/ 68 of 70 monthly fractal sequence. The Japanese central bank has maintained near zero interest rates and the government has undertaken massive federal debt during these last 18 years to prevent a 1990 real estate debt default. The great Wilshire is within the window of a historical 150 year second fractal nonlinear collapse with its 74 year first subfractal reaching a nadir in 1932. The second subfractal has been composed of a 17/33 year first and second fractal series skewed by the base fractals massive War World II governmental debt and expenditures and ending in 1982. The third subfractal of this series has been composed of a 9 year base from 1982 to 1990 and an 18 year subsequent second fractal as of 2008. This 18 year second fractal corresponds to Japan's three phase fractal series heretofore mentioned. Two sequential bubbles have occurred since 1990 - the high tech computer bubble and the financial services' collective instruments debt bubble which facilitated malinvestment, oversupply, and overvaluation of US and world real estate. While it is possible for a final malinvestment generic mini equity bubble to now occur, propelled by artificially low interest rates - very much out of alignment with ongoing inflation - the countervailing forces of the real consumer economy will provide the qualitative causes and reasons for the quantum fractal decay patterns that are ongoing and lie ahead. GM points the way for America.
End US investment money has flowed into commodities with peak production oil the primary benefactor of both supply and demand and US Fed Funds interest rate far too low to control commodity inflation via competitive value and speculative money flow. GM, the prototypical microcosm of America's financial, entitlement, and product dynamics ended 23 May 2008 at a 25 year low. The future's continuous CRB provides the best daily fractal picture of a likely lower high end saturation curve at 9/23/17 of 18-23 days:: x/2.5x/2-2.5x, with the first day of the first 9 day fractal upgoing and counted twice. For gold and the the daily CRB, a day is 'borrowed' from the preceding declining fractal series for a 9/23/17 day fractal series. Gold completed a monthly saturation fractal sequence of 17/35/34 months at its recent 1000 US dollar saturation peak, and unlike oil is not diminishing in quantity nor particularly essential or useful.
Posted at 2008-01-29 04:10:21 by lammertdecayfractals
Starting on 20 December 2007, the primary decay fractal for the Wilshire is 10/25/25 days
Posted at 2008-01-19 20:45:57 by lammertdecayfractals
Money growth and asset valuation in the US macroeconomy have reached their saturation limits in a well-defined heretofore described simple mathematical quantum fractal growth pattern. As assets depreciate, debt undergoes default, and recessionary job loss - as all three of these elements- synergistically feed one another, there will be a relatively short time interval of great nonlinearity in asset devaluation. In the larger picture of historical US macroeconomics dating to near the year of its constitution, this nonlinear devolution will be timed between 2X and 2.5X of America's Great Second Fractal beginning in 1858. This 2X-2.5X time window is quite large: approximately 35 years. When the devolution occurs, no one will mistake it for anything but the Great US Second Fractal terminal nonlinear collapse. Do the next 10-12 trading days represent the time period of this Great Second Fractal's terminal 2X-2.5X nonlinearity? Time will very shortly tell. As of 19 January 2007 at 13,305.08 and at a 14 month low, the Wilshire - whose minutely, daily, weekly, monthly and yearly valuation spreads have been perfectly ordered since October 2002 in evolving growth and decay quantum fractals and exactly represent the quantitative data points for the directly correlative evolving growing and contracting US money supply and macroeconomy - the Wilshire - now rests 2.6 trillion dollars below its predicted daily interday high on 11 October 2007. From the blogsite 'LAMMERT' a Wilshire decay model dating from 16 August 2007 has been identified. The daily data points are shared among growth and decay models with an averaged 20/50/50 day y/2.5y/2.5y decay model shared with a 17-18/44/34-35/27 day x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x growth and decay 4 phase fractal series. 26 December 2007, the final lower high for the Wilshire was day 34 (2x)of the third fractal. 18 January was day 40 of a 20/50/40 of 50 day averaged y/2.5y/2.5y decay fractal and day 17 of a 17-18/44/34/17 of 27 day growth and decay fractal series. Both are caricatures of the ideal four phase and three phase fractals but with a mutual shared terminal day. The US macroeconomic saturation growth period and corresponding saturation growth curve for the Wilshire have validated the empirically derived simple laws of Lammert quantum fractal progression and have likely delivered all the evidence and data points that the system will yield for many years. Now the focus is on the decay process and a similar validation of necessary, optimal, and ideal quantum fractal contraction of the macroeconomy as represented by Wilshire valuation quantum decay.
Posted at 2008-01-09 09:09:08 by lammertdecayfractals
Because 22 October 2007, the first day of first decay fractal, was upgoing with a base of 16-17 days, the window for the conclusion of the second fractal for model C of this alcove is extended to 11-12 January 2008.(16-17/40-43/40-43 days).
Posted at 2008-01-06 13:41:52 by lammertdecayfractals
The potential science of Lammert quantum macroeconomic fractal analysis has predicted the 19 July 2007 and 11 October 2007, secondary nominal high and final nominal high, respectively, and more recently, the 26 December 2007 lower high saturation tops. From this alcove site, decay model C:: 16/40/40 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y is still operative with a count of 16/37 of 40/40 days as of 6 January 08. If this quantum decay model is correct a devolution of at least 7-10 percent of the Wilshire should occur over the next three trading days taking the Wilshire to a minimum of a 12-16 month low during the trading day of 9 January 2008. In this decay model, the absolute decline and underlying slope line for the 40 day second decay fractal on 9 January are important because they will yield telling information regarding the macroeconomy's ability for another possible short debt cycle, fueled by sub one percent Fed Fund's rates and 1- 2 percent ten year notes. On the other hand, a more profound devolution is possible (consistent with the terminal portion of the 150 year US equity second fractal) with a completion of the 1.6x decay portion of the 17-18/44/34/1.6x or 27-28 day fractal starting 16 August 2007.